Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: PEPO vs Kiffen

Team pages: PEPO · Kiffen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

PEPO1.6

Kiffen1.32

1X2

44% 24% 32%

PEPO Draw Kiffen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

PEPO 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDDWD

Kiffen 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

PEPO 4–1–1 Kiffen (6 last)

Kiffen2-0PEPO
PEPO2-1Kiffen
Kiffen1-1PEPO
PEPO2-0Kiffen
Kiffen1-2PEPO
PEPO3-0Kiffen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PEPO 1567 · Kiffen 1553

	PEPO	Draw	Kiffen
Our model	43%	27%	31%
Market	45%	22%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours PEPO: 4-1-1.
High corners: 14.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PEPO	Kiffen
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7.9	3.3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:24 +4’	2.00	4.00	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PEPO 4–1–1 Kiffen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Kiffen	2-0 HT 1-0	PEPO
09/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	PEPO	2-1 HT 0-0	Kiffen
22/09/24 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Kiffen	1-1 HT 0-0	PEPO
07/07/24 Finland Kakkonen Group A	PEPO	2-0 HT 1-0	Kiffen
13/06/24 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Kiffen	1-2 HT 1-2	PEPO
27/08/23 Finland Kakkonen Group A	PEPO	3-0 HT 2-0	Kiffen

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group A · Kakkonen 2026, Championship Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kiffen	22	15	3	4	47	30	48
2	PEPO	22	12	7	3	40	26	43
3	Atlantis	22	11	3	8	67	49	36
4	HIFK 2	22	8	7	7	43	38	31
5	PPJ	22	7	9	6	43	37	30
6	HPS	22	7	6	9	43	49	27

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PEPO	Kiffen
HPS	1-1 D	2-1 W
HIFK 2	2-1 W	1-0 W
Atlantis	0-0 D	2-1 W
PPJ	1-1 D	1-4 L
MyPa	4-1 W	0-0 D
Union Plaani	2-0 W	1-0 W
Puiu	3-2 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PEPO

LWWWWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
08/09	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	2-1	10	9	W
03/09	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
29/08	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
22/08	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	5-1	7	3	W
16/08	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
07/08	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	4-1	9	7	W
31/07	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
24/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
18/07	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	11	4	L

Kiffen

WDDWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
08/09	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
04/09	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-2	1-4	6	5	L
30/08	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-1	9	4	W
22/08	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	5-1	9	3	W
15/08	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
07/08	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
01/08	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
25/07	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
18/07	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PEPO vs Kiffen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PEPO win (44%). Probabilities: PEPO 44%, draw 24%, Kiffen 32%.

How many goals are expected in PEPO vs Kiffen?

The model expects 2.92 goals (PEPO 1.6 · Kiffen 1.32), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in PEPO vs Kiffen?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.