Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 19/09, 13:00

Prediction: Union Plaani vs Reipas

Team pages: Union Plaani · Reipas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Union Plaani1.9

Reipas1.84

1X2

40% 23% 37%

Union Plaani Draw Reipas

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Plaani 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWWWW

Reipas 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Union Plaani 1–1 Reipas (2 last)

Union Plaani1-0Reipas
Reipas4-2Union Plaani

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Plaani 1518 · Reipas 1456

	Union Plaani	Draw	Reipas
Our model	40%	23%	37%
Market	40%	22%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Plaani (rating 1518 vs 1456).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Plaani	Reipas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.4 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	3.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.00

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +6’	2.25	4.00	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Plaani 1–0–1 Reipas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Union Plaani	1-0 HT 1-0	Reipas
13/06/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Reipas	4-2 HT 1-1	Union Plaani

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group A · Kakkonen 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reipas	20	7	3	10	36	40	24
2	Union Plaani	20	6	2	12	26	46	20
3	MyPa	20	5	3	12	27	43	18
4	Puiu	20	4	5	11	28	42	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Plaani	Reipas
MyPa	3-2 W	1-5 L
Puiu	4-2 W	0-0 D
HPS	3-0 W	2-3 L
PEPO	0-2 L	1-2 L
PPJ	1-0 W	2-1 W
Atlantis	3-6 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Union Plaani (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Plaani

WLLWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
06/09	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-1	4-2	4	2	W
22/08	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
15/08	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	3-0	10	7	W
07/08	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
31/07	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
24/07	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/07	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-4	3-6	8	3	L
11/07	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
04/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-1	12	4	W

Reipas

LDLWWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
04/09	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-3	1-5	4	3	L
22/08	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
16/08	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
07/08	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-2	2-4	7	4	L
02/08	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
25/07	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	4-2	7	5	W
18/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-4	1-4	5	3	L
12/07	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
04/07	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	2-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Plaani vs Reipas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Plaani win (40%). Probabilities: Union Plaani 40%, draw 23%, Reipas 37%.

How many goals are expected in Union Plaani vs Reipas?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Union Plaani 1.9 · Reipas 1.84), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Plaani vs Reipas?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.