Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Reipas vs Puiu

Team pages: Reipas · Puiu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

Reipas2.38

Puiu1.61

1X2

54% 21% 25%

Reipas Draw Puiu

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Reipas 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Puiu 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Reipas 3–1–2 Puiu (6 last)

Puiu4-1Reipas
Reipas3-1Puiu
Reipas0-1Puiu
Puiu1-1Reipas
Puiu2-4Reipas
Reipas6-1Puiu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Reipas 1448 · Puiu 1443

	Reipas	Draw	Puiu
Our model	54%	21%	25%
Market	54%	21%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Reipas: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Reipas	Puiu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.6	1.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	3.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:14 +5’	1.67	4.20	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Reipas 3–1–2 Puiu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Puiu	4-1 HT 4-1	Reipas
08/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Reipas	3-1 HT 3-0	Puiu
03/08/25 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Reipas	0-1 HT 0-0	Puiu
01/06/25 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Puiu	1-1 HT 0-0	Reipas
08/09/17 Finland Kolmonen	Puiu	2-4 HT 1-1	Reipas
01/06/17 Finland Kolmonen	Reipas	6-1 HT 2-0	Puiu

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group A · Kakkonen 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reipas	19	7	2	10	36	40	23
2	MyPa	19	5	3	11	25	40	18
3	Union Plaani	19	5	2	12	23	44	17
4	Puiu	19	4	4	11	28	42	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Reipas	Puiu
MyPa	1-5 L	1-2 L
Union Plaani	0-1 L	2-4 L
PEPO	1-2 L	2-3 L
Atlantis	2-4 L	2-2 D
PPJ	2-1 W	4-1 W
HIFK 2	1-1 D	2-2 D
HPS	2-3 L	0-2 L
Kiffen	2-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Reipas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-3	1-5	4	3	L
22/08	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
16/08	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
07/08	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-2	2-4	7	4	L
02/08	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
25/07	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	4-2	7	5	W
18/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-4	1-4	5	3	L
12/07	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
04/07	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	2-3	3	4	L
27/06	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-2	2-3	6	4	L

Puiu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-2	2-4	5	2	L
22/08	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
15/08	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
08/08	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	2-2	3	9	D
01/08	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-2	0	8	D
24/07	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-1	2-3	2	5	L
18/07	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	4-1	4-1	3	3	W
11/07	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	4-1	5	4	W
04/07	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
27/06	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Reipas vs Puiu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Reipas win (54%). Probabilities: Reipas 54%, draw 21%, Puiu 25%.

How many goals are expected in Reipas vs Puiu?

The model expects 3.99 goals (Reipas 2.38 · Puiu 1.61), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Reipas vs Puiu?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.