Football · Finland Kakkonen Group C · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: JS Hercules vs FC Vaajakoski

Team pages: JS Hercules · FC Vaajakoski

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

JS Hercules2.03

FC Vaajakoski2.08

1X2

38% 22% 40%

JS Hercules Draw FC Vaajakoski

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

JS Hercules 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLWLWL

FC Vaajakoski 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDLWLL

Head-to-head

JS Hercules 2–2–2 FC Vaajakoski (6 last)

FC Vaajakoski2-0JS Hercules
JS Hercules2-2FC Vaajakoski
FC Vaajakoski3-5JS Hercules
JS Hercules1-5FC Vaajakoski
FC Vaajakoski0-0JS Hercules
JS Hercules1-0FC Vaajakoski

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JS Hercules 1506 · FC Vaajakoski 1469

	JS Hercules	Draw	FC Vaajakoski
Our model	38%	22%	40%
Market	38%	21%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JS Hercules	FC Vaajakoski
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.7	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X4.20

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 01:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.46 ★
X	4.33 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	2.63 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.32

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +4’	2.00	4.33	2.63
20:53 +7’	1.65▼	4.75▲	3.50▲
02:16 +8’	2.05▲	4.33▼	2.55▼
18:11 +6’	2.45▲	4.33	2.10▼
01:02 +28’	2.35▼	4.20▼	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:56 +81’	2.46	3.74	2.32
07:44 +54’	2.46	3.75▲	2.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · JS Hercules 2–2–2 FC Vaajakoski

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	FC Vaajakoski	2-0 HT 1-0	JS Hercules
04/07/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	JS Hercules	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Vaajakoski
25/04/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	FC Vaajakoski	3-5 HT 2-2	JS Hercules
19/08/23 Finland Kakkonen Group C	JS Hercules	1-5 HT 1-3	FC Vaajakoski
26/05/23 Finland Kakkonen Group C	FC Vaajakoski	0-0 HT 0-0	JS Hercules
27/08/22 Finland Kakkonen Group C	JS Hercules	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Vaajakoski

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group C · Kakkonen 2026, Relegation Round, Group C

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	TP-47	21	8	5	8	32	37	29
2	SJK Akatemia II	21	7	4	10	35	48	25
3	FC Vaajakoski	21	7	3	11	37	47	24
4	JS Hercules	21	7	3	11	35	49	24

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JS Hercules	FC Vaajakoski
SJK Akatemia II	3-5 L	1-2 L
TP-47	1-0 W	0-1 L
FF Jaro II	3-1 W	5-2 W
VPS-J	1-3 L	3-2 W
Narpes Kraft	2-3 L	3-2 W
JBK	5-3 W	0-4 L
Huima/Urho	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Vaajakoski (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JS Hercules

DWWLDLWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	3-5	7	6	L
11/09	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
22/08	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
15/08	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	1-3	9	6	L
09/08	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
01/08	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
23/07	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/07	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	3-1	5-3	4	3	W
11/07	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

FC Vaajakoski

WLWLWDLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
12/09	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	1-2	9	2	L
06/09	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
22/08	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-2	2-4	7	5	L
15/08	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
08/08	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-1	3-2	6	4	W
01/08	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-3	0-4	5	3	L
26/07	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-2	3-2	6	4	W
17/07	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
12/07	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	3-1	5-2	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JS Hercules vs FC Vaajakoski?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Vaajakoski win (40%). Probabilities: JS Hercules 38%, draw 22%, FC Vaajakoski 40%.

How many goals are expected in JS Hercules vs FC Vaajakoski?

The model expects 4.11 goals (JS Hercules 2.03 · FC Vaajakoski 2.08), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JS Hercules vs FC Vaajakoski?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.