Football · Finland Kakkonen Group C · 04/10, 15:00

Prediction: TP-47 vs FC Vaajakoski

Team pages: TP-47 · FC Vaajakoski

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

TP-471.88

FC Vaajakoski1.72

1X2

42% 23% 35%

TP-47 Draw FC Vaajakoski

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

TP-47 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWWLWL

FC Vaajakoski 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLWLLD

Head-to-head

TP-47 2–3 FC Vaajakoski (5 last)

FC Vaajakoski0-1TP-47
TP-474-2FC Vaajakoski
FC Vaajakoski3-2TP-47
FC Vaajakoski2-0TP-47
TP-470-1FC Vaajakoski

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TP-47 1467 · FC Vaajakoski 1477

	TP-47	Draw	FC Vaajakoski
Our model	42%	24%	35%
Market	43%	22%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Vaajakoski: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TP-47	FC Vaajakoski
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	2.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.10

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 05:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.11
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.33 ★
2	2.80 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.58

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:47 +6’	1.91	4.20	2.80
17:42 +5’	2.05▲	4.10▼	2.55▼
20:38 +6’	2.05	4.10	2.60▲
05:36 +2’	2.10▲	4.10	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +151’	2.07	4.06	2.66
03:05 +50’	2.14▲	4.00▼	2.57▼
13:00 +52’	2.11▼	4.33▲	2.58▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TP-47 2–0–3 FC Vaajakoski

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	FC Vaajakoski	0-1 HT 0-0	TP-47
22/08/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	TP-47	4-2 HT 2-2	FC Vaajakoski
14/06/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	FC Vaajakoski	3-2 HT 2-1	TP-47
07/10/23 Finland Kakkonen Group C	FC Vaajakoski	2-0 HT 0-0	TP-47
22/07/23 Finland Kakkonen Group C	TP-47	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Vaajakoski

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group C · Kakkonen 2026, Relegation Round, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	TP-47	22	8	5	9	32	41	29
2	SJK Akatemia II	23	8	4	11	40	50	28
3	JS Hercules	23	8	4	11	39	52	28
4	FC Vaajakoski	22	7	4	11	39	49	25

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TP-47	FC Vaajakoski
SJK Akatemia II	0-4 L	1-2 L
JS Hercules	0-1 L	2-2 D
JBK	0-4 L	0-4 L
Narpes Kraft	2-1 W	3-2 W
Huima/Urho	0-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Vaajakoski (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TP-47

LLLWLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-4	0	5	L
19/09	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
11/09	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
22/08	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-2	4-2	9	5	W
16/08	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	0-4	7	7	L
08/08	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
01/08	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-4	4	4	L
23/07	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
18/07	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-2	3	1	L

FC Vaajakoski

LWLWDLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
19/09	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
12/09	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	1-2	9	2	L
06/09	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
22/08	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-2	2-4	7	5	L
15/08	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
08/08	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-1	3-2	6	4	W
01/08	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-3	0-4	5	3	L
26/07	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-2	3-2	6	4	W
17/07	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TP-47 vs FC Vaajakoski?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TP-47 win (42%). Probabilities: TP-47 42%, draw 23%, FC Vaajakoski 35%.

How many goals are expected in TP-47 vs FC Vaajakoski?

The model expects 3.6 goals (TP-47 1.88 · FC Vaajakoski 1.72), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in TP-47 vs FC Vaajakoski?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.