Football · Malta Challenge League · 17/10, 16:30

Prediction: Melita FC Saint Julian vs Pieta Hotspurs

Team pages: Melita FC Saint Julian · Pieta Hotspurs

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Melita FC Saint Julian1.62

Pieta Hotspurs1.38

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Melita FC Saint Julian Draw Pieta Hotspurs

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Melita FC Saint Julian 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLWLD

Pieta Hotspurs 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWDWLL

Head-to-head

Melita FC Saint Julian 4–1–1 Pieta Hotspurs (6 last)

Pieta Hotspurs0-1Melita FC Saint Julian
Pieta Hotspurs1-0Melita FC Saint Julian
Melita FC Saint Julian3-1Pieta Hotspurs
Melita FC Saint Julian5-1Pieta Hotspurs
Pieta Hotspurs0-1Melita FC Saint Julian
Pieta Hotspurs2-2Melita FC Saint Julian

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melita FC Saint Julian 1473 · Pieta Hotspurs 1490

	Melita FC Saint Julian	Draw	Pieta Hotspurs
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	43%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Melita FC Saint Julian: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melita FC Saint Julian	Pieta Hotspurs
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:14 +4’	2.10	3.50	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Melita FC Saint Julian 4–1–1 Pieta Hotspurs

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Malta Challenge League Cup	Pieta Hotspurs	0-1 HT 0-0	Melita FC Saint Julian
08/03/26 Malta Challenge League	Pieta Hotspurs	1-0 HT 0-0	Melita FC Saint Julian
30/11/25 Malta Challenge League	Melita FC Saint Julian	3-1 HT 3-1	Pieta Hotspurs
27/04/24 Malta Challenge League	Melita FC Saint Julian	5-1 HT 1-0	Pieta Hotspurs
09/03/24 Malta Challenge League	Pieta Hotspurs	0-1 HT 0-0	Melita FC Saint Julian
24/09/23 Malta Challenge League	Pieta Hotspurs	2-2 HT 2-1	Melita FC Saint Julian

Standings · Malta Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows FC	3	3	0	0	9	3	9
2	Fgura United	3	2	1	0	8	1	7
3	Naxxar Lions	3	2	0	1	8	6	6
4	Mgarr United	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
4	Victoria Hotspurs	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
6	Melita FC Saint Julian	3	1	1	1	4	2	4
7	Swieqi Utd	3	1	1	1	6	6	4
8	Sirens	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
9	Vittoriosa Stars	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
10	St Andrews	3	1	1	1	2	4	4
11	Santa Lucia FC	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
12	Pieta Hotspurs	3	1	0	2	6	8	3
13	Zebbug Rangers FC	3	1	0	2	2	7	3
14	Attard	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
15	Zurrieq FC	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
16	Gudja United	3	0	0	3	0	6	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melita FC Saint Julian	Pieta Hotspurs
Balzan FC	0-2 L	1-3 L
Fgura United	0-1 L	4-0 W
Swieqi Utd	0-5 L	2-3 L
St Andrews	3-0 W	2-2 D
Birzebbuga	1-2 L	2-2 D
Sirens	2-0 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pieta Hotspurs (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melita FC Saint Julian

WLLWLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Attard Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
19/09	Mgarr United Malta Challenge League	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
13/09	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	0-0	3-0	5	4	W
19/04	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
11/04	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
04/04	Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League	0-2	0-5	3	3	L
14/03	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
08/03	Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
28/02	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/02	Sirens Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-0	2	10	W

Pieta Hotspurs

LLWDWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-3	1	7	L
18/09	Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League	1-1	2-3	7	4	L
12/09	Naxxar Lions Malta Challenge League	1-2	3-2	7	4	W
19/04	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-2	1	3	D
12/04	Sirens Malta Challenge League	1-2	4-3	3	0	W
04/04	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	0-0	4-0	7	1	W
14/03	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
08/03	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
28/02	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
22/02	Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League	0-2	1-3	3	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melita FC Saint Julian vs Pieta Hotspurs?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Melita FC Saint Julian win (42%). Probabilities: Melita FC Saint Julian 42%, draw 26%, Pieta Hotspurs 32%.

How many goals are expected in Melita FC Saint Julian vs Pieta Hotspurs?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Melita FC Saint Julian 1.62 · Pieta Hotspurs 1.38), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Melita FC Saint Julian vs Pieta Hotspurs?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.