Football · Malta Challenge League · 17/10, 17:00

Prediction: Zurrieq FC vs Gudja United

Team pages: Zurrieq FC · Gudja United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Zurrieq FC1.57

Gudja United1.24

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Zurrieq FC Draw Gudja United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Zurrieq FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLWLLD

Gudja United 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Zurrieq FC 2–1 Gudja United (3 last)

Gudja United0-3Zurrieq FC
Gudja United1-0Zurrieq FC
Gudja United1-3Zurrieq FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zurrieq FC 1494 · Gudja United 1472

	Zurrieq FC	Draw	Gudja United
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Zurrieq FC: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zurrieq FC	Gudja United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:10 +8’	2.00	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zurrieq FC 2–0–1 Gudja United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Malta Challenge League	Gudja United	0-3 HT 0-1	Zurrieq FC
13/12/25 Malta Challenge League	Gudja United	1-0 HT 0-0	Zurrieq FC
19/10/24 Malta Challenge League	Gudja United	1-3 HT 0-2	Zurrieq FC

Standings · Malta Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows FC	3	3	0	0	9	3	9
2	Fgura United	3	2	1	0	8	1	7
3	Naxxar Lions	3	2	0	1	8	6	6
4	Mgarr United	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
4	Victoria Hotspurs	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
6	Melita FC Saint Julian	3	1	1	1	4	2	4
7	Swieqi Utd	3	1	1	1	6	6	4
8	Sirens	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
9	Vittoriosa Stars	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
10	St Andrews	3	1	1	1	2	4	4
11	Santa Lucia FC	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
12	Pieta Hotspurs	3	1	0	2	6	8	3
13	Zebbug Rangers FC	3	1	0	2	2	7	3
14	Attard	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
15	Zurrieq FC	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
16	Gudja United	3	0	0	3	0	6	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zurrieq FC	Gudja United
Santa Lucia FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Mgarr United	4-2 W	2-0 W
Marsa FC	2-1 W	3-3 D
Zebbug Rangers FC	3-3 D	1-2 L
Mtarfa	2-0 W	3-0 W
Vittoriosa Stars	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Zurrieq FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zurrieq FC

WLWDWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
19/09	Victoria Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
12/09	Sirens Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
18/04	Mgarr United Malta Challenge League	1-1	4-2	1	4	W
12/04	Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League	0-2	0-3	8	2	L
01/04	Marsa FC Malta Challenge League	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
15/03	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	1-2	3-3	2	4	D
07/03	Mtarfa Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
28/02	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	1-2	1-2	6	5	L
21/02	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	1-0	3-0	2	3	W

Gudja United

LLDWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
19/09	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
13/09	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
18/04	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	2-0	3-2	3	1	W
12/04	Mgarr United Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
04/04	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
15/03	Mtarfa Malta Challenge League	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
08/03	Marsa FC Malta Challenge League	2-2	3-3	3	6	D
28/02	Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
21/02	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-3	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zurrieq FC vs Gudja United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zurrieq FC win (44%). Probabilities: Zurrieq FC 44%, draw 27%, Gudja United 29%.

How many goals are expected in Zurrieq FC vs Gudja United?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Zurrieq FC 1.57 · Gudja United 1.24), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Zurrieq FC vs Gudja United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.