Football · Romania Liga III · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti vs Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Team pages: AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti · Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.8Total

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti1.59

Cetatea Turnu Magurele2.21

1X2

26% 23% 51%

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti Draw Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWLLL

Cetatea Turnu Magurele 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDWDDLD

Head-to-head

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 1–1–2 Cetatea Turnu Magurele (4 last)

Cetatea Turnu Magurele6-2AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti
AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti1-2Cetatea Turnu Magurele
AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti2-2Cetatea Turnu Magurele
Cetatea Turnu Magurele2-3AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 1435 · Cetatea Turnu Magurele 1506

	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	Draw	Cetatea Turnu Magurele
Our model	27%	22%	51%
Market	26%	24%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cetatea Turnu Magurele (rating 1435 vs 1506).
H2H favours Cetatea Turnu Magurele: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	Cetatea Turnu Magurele
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	2.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/67/17%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.4	1.3 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.70

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:27 +9’	3.50	3.70	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 1–1–2 Cetatea Turnu Magurele

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Romania Liga III	Cetatea Turnu Magurele	6-2	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti
18/10/25 Romania Liga III	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	1-2 HT 0-2	Cetatea Turnu Magurele
09/11/24 Romania Liga III	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	2-2 HT 2-1	Cetatea Turnu Magurele
06/09/24 Romania Liga III	Cetatea Turnu Magurele	2-3	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti

Standings · Romania Liga III · Liga 3 26/27, Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti	9	6	3	0	12	6	21
2	CSM Alexandria	9	5	3	1	14	7	18
3	Dunarea Giurgiu	9	4	5	0	17	9	17
4	ACS Inter Ilfov	9	5	2	2	22	14	17
5	Acs Axi Arena	10	4	0	6	7	17	12
6	Dinamo Bucharest II	9	4	0	5	10	13	12
7	Progresul Mogosoaia	9	3	3	3	13	17	12
8	Cetatea Turnu Magurele	9	2	4	3	20	14	10
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	9	3	1	5	12	17	10
10	Steaua Bucharest II	10	3	1	6	20	26	10
11	FC Voluntari II	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
12	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	9	2	0	7	10	13	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	Cetatea Turnu Magurele
Dinamo Bucharest II	0-2 L	3-1 W
FC Voluntari II	1-2 L	2-2 D
Acs Axi Arena	1-2 L	0-1 L
Steaua Bucharest II	2-1 W	9-0 W
Dunarea Giurgiu	0-1 L	0-2 L
Progresul Mogosoaia	1-2 L	3-3 D
CSM Alexandria	0-1 L	1-1 D
Oxigen Bucuresti	5-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cetatea Turnu Magurele (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti

WWLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Dinamo Bucharest II Romania Liga III	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
10/10	FC Voluntari II Romania Liga III	0-1	1-2	11	2	L
02/10	Acs Axi Arena Romania Liga III	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Steaua Bucharest II Romania Liga III	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/09	Dunarea Giurgiu Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti Romania Liga III	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
12/09	Progresul Mogosoaia Romania Liga III	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
04/09	CSM Alexandria Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Oxigen Bucuresti Romania Liga III	–	5-1	7	2	W
15/05	Acs Axi Arena Romania Liga III	4-0	8-0	6	5	W

Cetatea Turnu Magurele

WLWLDWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	CSM Alexandria Romania Liga III	–	1-1	–	–	D
09/10	Oxigen Bucuresti Romania Liga III	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
02/10	ACS Inter Ilfov Romania Liga III	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/09	Progresul Mogosoaia Romania Liga III	1-1	3-3	1	7	D
22/09	Dinamo Bucharest II Romania Liga III	0-1	3-1	3	4	W
18/09	FC Voluntari II Romania Liga III	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/09	Acs Axi Arena Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L
04/09	Steaua Bucharest II Romania Liga III	–	9-0	–	–	W
29/08	Dunarea Giurgiu Romania Liga III	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/05	CS Vulturii Farcasesti Romania Liga III	–	4-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti vs Cetatea Turnu Magurele?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cetatea Turnu Magurele win (51%). Probabilities: AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 26%, draw 23%, Cetatea Turnu Magurele 51%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti vs Cetatea Turnu Magurele?

The model expects 3.8 goals (AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 1.59 · Cetatea Turnu Magurele 2.21), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti vs Cetatea Turnu Magurele?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.