Football · Panama Liga Prom · 28/08, 03:00

Prediction: SD Atletico Nacional vs CD Universitario Reserves

Team pages: SD Atletico Nacional · CD Universitario Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

SD Atletico Nacional1.95

CD Universitario Reserves1.76

1X2

42% 25% 34%

SD Atletico Nacional Draw CD Universitario Reserves

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

SD Atletico Nacional 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWWLLL

CD Universitario Reserves 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDLWWWDW

Head-to-head

SD Atletico Nacional 2–2–2 CD Universitario Reserves (6 last)

CD Universitario Reserves3-2SD Atletico Nacional
CD Universitario Reserves0-4SD Atletico Nacional
SD Atletico Nacional2-2CD Universitario Reserves
CD Universitario Reserves3-1SD Atletico Nacional
SD Atletico Nacional2-2CD Universitario Reserves
CD Universitario Reserves1-2SD Atletico Nacional

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SD Atletico Nacional 1480 · CD Universitario Reserves 1558

	SD Atletico Nacional	Draw	CD Universitario Reserves
Our model	42%	23%	35%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Universitario Reserves (rating 1480 vs 1558).
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SD Atletico Nacional	CD Universitario Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.4	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/29/43%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.3	2.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	6.3 / 1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:04 +2’	2.20	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Atletico Nacional 2–2–2 CD Universitario Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/02/26 Panama Liga Prom	CD Universitario Reserves	3-2	SD Atletico Nacional
20/02/25 Panama Liga Prom	CD Universitario Reserves	0-4 HT 0-1	SD Atletico Nacional
05/09/24 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	2-2 HT 0-1	CD Universitario Reserves
23/02/24 Panama Liga Prom	CD Universitario Reserves	3-1	SD Atletico Nacional
09/09/23 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	2-2 HT 0-0	CD Universitario Reserves
15/02/23 Panama Liga Prom	CD Universitario Reserves	1-2 HT 0-1	SD Atletico Nacional

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, West-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aguilas de la U	5	4	0	1	13	3	12
2	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	5	3	2	0	10	6	11
3	Udelas FC	5	3	0	2	10	6	9
4	SD Atletico Nacional	5	2	0	3	8	13	6
5	San Francisco Reserves	5	1	1	3	7	11	4
6	Union Cocle Reserves	5	0	1	4	4	13	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SD Atletico Nacional	CD Universitario Reserves
Udelas FC	1-3 L	1-2 L
Aguilas de la U	1-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Universitario Reserves (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SD Atletico Nacional

WWDLDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	2-4	–	–	L
14/08	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	1-3	4	8	L
08/08	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	–	1-4	–	–	L
01/08	Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
25/07	San Francisco Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	3-2	5	4	W
02/05	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
25/04	San Francisco Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
17/04	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-3	3-3	5	4	D
10/04	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom	2-0	4-3	6	9	W
01/04	Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	3-2	–	–	W

CD Universitario Reserves

WWDDLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom	1-3	4-3	15	9	W
15/08	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	3	7	D
08/08	Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
02/08	Herrera FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	3-1	4	6	W
24/07	Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
15/05	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
10/05	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
06/05	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
25/04	Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom	2-1	4-3	4	8	W
18/04	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SD Atletico Nacional vs CD Universitario Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SD Atletico Nacional win (42%). Probabilities: SD Atletico Nacional 42%, draw 25%, CD Universitario Reserves 34%.

How many goals are expected in SD Atletico Nacional vs CD Universitario Reserves?

The model expects 3.72 goals (SD Atletico Nacional 1.95 · CD Universitario Reserves 1.76), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SD Atletico Nacional vs CD Universitario Reserves?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.