Football · Australia A-League Women · 25/10, 07:45
Prediction: Sydney FC (W) vs Melbourne City (W)
Team pages: Sydney FC (W) · Melbourne City (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Sydney FC (W)0.91
Melbourne City (W)1.93
1X2
Sydney FC (W)
Draw
Melbourne City (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Sydney FC (W)
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Melbourne City (W)
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sydney FC (W)
1–3–2
Melbourne City (W)
(6 last)
- Melbourne City (W)1-0Sydney FC (W)
- Sydney FC (W)2-2Melbourne City (W)
- Melbourne City (W)2-1Sydney FC (W)
- Sydney FC (W)1-1Melbourne City (W)
- Sydney FC (W)1-1Melbourne City (W)
- Melbourne City (W)0-1Sydney FC (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sydney FC (W) 1457 · Melbourne City (W) 1590
| Sydney FC (W) | Draw | Melbourne City (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| Market | 17% | 22% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne City (W) (rating 1457 vs 1590).
- H2H favours Melbourne City (W): 2-3-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sydney FC (W) | Melbourne City (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 1.7 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 5 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.1 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sydney FC (W) 1–3–2 Melbourne City (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/26 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne City (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sydney FC (W) |
| 01/11/25 Australia A-League Women | Sydney FC (W) | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Melbourne City (W) |
| 15/02/25 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne City (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Sydney FC (W) |
| 05/01/25 Australia A-League Women | Sydney FC (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Melbourne City (W) |
| 24/11/24 Australia A-League Women | Sydney FC (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Melbourne City (W) |
| 04/05/24 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne City (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sydney FC (W) |
Standings · Australia A-League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Coast Mariners FC (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Melbourne City (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Perth Glory (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Adelaide United (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Sydney FC (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Canberra Utd (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix (W) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | Newcastle Jets (W) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar (W) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sydney FC (W) | Melbourne City (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide United (W) | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Central Coast Mariners FC (W) | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Melbourne Victory (W) | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Wellington Phoenix (W) | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Newcastle Jets (W) | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Canberra Utd (W) | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Western Sydney Wanderers (W) | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne City (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sydney FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Adelaide United (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 04/04 | Central Coast Mariners FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 28/03 | Melbourne Victory (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 13/03 | Newcastle Jets (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 13/02 | Brisbane Roar (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 08/02 | Canberra Utd (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 04/02 | Brisbane Roar (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 31/01 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 28/01 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | D |
Melbourne City (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Melbourne Victory (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Melbourne Victory (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Newcastle Jets (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/03 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) Australia A-League Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/03 | Adelaide United (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 15/03 | Canberra Utd (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 20/02 | Central Coast Mariners FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 15/02 | Melbourne Victory (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sydney FC (W) vs Melbourne City (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne City (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Sydney FC (W) 17%, draw 23%, Melbourne City (W) 61%.
How many goals are expected in Sydney FC (W) vs Melbourne City (W)?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Sydney FC (W) 0.91 · Melbourne City (W) 1.93), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sydney FC (W) vs Melbourne City (W)?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.