Football · Australia A-League Women · 01/11, 07:45
Prediction: Melbourne Victory (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W)
Team pages: Melbourne Victory (W) · Newcastle Jets (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Melbourne Victory (W)2.09
Newcastle Jets (W)0.94
1X2
Melbourne Victory (W)
Draw
Newcastle Jets (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Melbourne Victory (W)
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Newcastle Jets (W)
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melbourne Victory (W)
5–1
Newcastle Jets (W)
(6 last)
- Melbourne Victory (W)2-1Newcastle Jets (W)
- Newcastle Jets (W)1-3Melbourne Victory (W)
- Melbourne Victory (W)4-3Newcastle Jets (W)
- Newcastle Jets (W)0-2Melbourne Victory (W)
- Newcastle Jets (W)3-2Melbourne Victory (W)
- Melbourne Victory (W)4-0Newcastle Jets (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melbourne Victory (W) 1531 · Newcastle Jets (W) 1430
| Melbourne Victory (W) | Draw | Newcastle Jets (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory (W) (rating 1531 vs 1430).
- H2H favours Melbourne Victory (W): 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melbourne Victory (W) | Newcastle Jets (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.9 | 2.1 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Victory (W) 5–0–1 Newcastle Jets (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne Victory (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Newcastle Jets (W) |
| 19/12/25 Australia A-League Women | Newcastle Jets (W) | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Melbourne Victory (W) |
| 21/03/25 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne Victory (W) | 4-3 HT 3-2 | Newcastle Jets (W) |
| 11/01/25 Australia A-League Women | Newcastle Jets (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Melbourne Victory (W) |
| 23/03/24 Australia A-League Women | Newcastle Jets (W) | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Melbourne Victory (W) |
| 12/11/23 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne Victory (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Newcastle Jets (W) |
Standings · Australia A-League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Coast Mariners FC (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Melbourne City (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Perth Glory (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Adelaide United (W) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 7 | Wellington Phoenix (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 8 | Sydney FC (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle Jets (W) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | Brisbane Roar (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 | Canberra United (W) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melbourne Victory (W) | Newcastle Jets (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix (W) | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| Western Sydney Wanderers (W) | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Melbourne City (W) | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Perth Glory (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Sydney FC (W) | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melbourne Victory (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 17/10 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Canberra Utd (W) Australia A-League Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/04 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Sydney FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 14/03 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/02 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 15/02 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
Newcastle Jets (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 05/04 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/03 | Adelaide United (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 20/03 | Brisbane Roar (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 13/03 | Sydney FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 21/02 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 13/02 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 07/02 | Melbourne Victory (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 01/02 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/01 | Adelaide United (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melbourne Victory (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Victory (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Melbourne Victory (W) 63%, draw 22%, Newcastle Jets (W) 15%.
How many goals are expected in Melbourne Victory (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W)?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Melbourne Victory (W) 2.09 · Newcastle Jets (W) 0.94), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.