Football · Australia A-League Women · 06/11, 09:00
Prediction: Adelaide United (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W)
Team pages: Adelaide United (W) · Wellington Phoenix (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
Adelaide United (W)1.18
Wellington Phoenix (W)1.55
1X2
Adelaide United (W)
Draw
Wellington Phoenix (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Adelaide United (W)
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Wellington Phoenix (W)
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Adelaide United (W)
2–4
Wellington Phoenix (W)
(6 last)
- Adelaide United (W)0-2Wellington Phoenix (W)
- Wellington Phoenix (W)3-1Adelaide United (W)
- Wellington Phoenix (W)1-3Adelaide United (W)
- Adelaide United (W)2-1Wellington Phoenix (W)
- Adelaide United (W)0-1Wellington Phoenix (W)
- Wellington Phoenix (W)4-0Adelaide United (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adelaide United (W) 1448 · Wellington Phoenix (W) 1475
| Adelaide United (W) | Draw | Wellington Phoenix (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Wellington Phoenix (W): 4-0-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Adelaide United (W) | Wellington Phoenix (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.6 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.5 | 2.3 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0.1 | 0.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide United (W) 2–0–4 Wellington Phoenix (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Australia A-League Women | Adelaide United (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Wellington Phoenix (W) |
| 25/01/26 Australia A-League Women | Wellington Phoenix (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Adelaide United (W) |
| 02/03/25 Australia A-League Women | Wellington Phoenix (W) | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Adelaide United (W) |
| 12/01/25 Australia A-League Women | Adelaide United (W) | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Wellington Phoenix (W) |
| 22/11/24 Australia A-League Women | Adelaide United (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Wellington Phoenix (W) |
| 20/03/24 Australia A-League Women | Wellington Phoenix (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Adelaide United (W) |
Standings · Australia A-League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Coast Mariners FC (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Perth Glory (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Melbourne City (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Sydney FC (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 7 | Adelaide United (W) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix (W) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle Jets (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Brisbane Roar (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 | Canberra United (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Adelaide United (W) | Wellington Phoenix (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Central Coast Mariners FC (W) | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Perth Glory (W) | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Sydney FC (W) | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Brisbane Roar (W) | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Melbourne City (W) | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Wellington Phoenix (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adelaide United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Central Coast Mariners FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 24/10 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Sydney FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Brisbane Roar (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 03/04 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | Newcastle Jets (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 22/03 | Canberra United (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 18/03 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 13/03 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 22/02 | Brisbane Roar (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
Wellington Phoenix (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 25/10 | Melbourne Victory (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 18/10 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Brisbane Roar (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Brisbane Roar (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 03/04 | Adelaide United (W) Australia A-League Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 29/03 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/03 | Central Coast Mariners FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 20/03 | Sydney FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adelaide United (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Wellington Phoenix (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Adelaide United (W) 28%, draw 27%, Wellington Phoenix (W) 45%.
How many goals are expected in Adelaide United (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W)?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Adelaide United (W) 1.18 · Wellington Phoenix (W) 1.55), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Adelaide United (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.