Football · Australia A-League Women · 07/11, 07:00
Prediction: Brisbane Roar (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W)
Team pages: Brisbane Roar (W) · Melbourne Victory (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Brisbane Roar (W)0.92
Melbourne Victory (W)1.72
1X2
Brisbane Roar (W)
Draw
Melbourne Victory (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Brisbane Roar (W)
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Melbourne Victory (W)
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brisbane Roar (W)
4–2
Melbourne Victory (W)
(6 last)
- Melbourne Victory (W)0-1Brisbane Roar (W)
- Brisbane Roar (W)3-2Melbourne Victory (W)
- Melbourne Victory (W)2-0Brisbane Roar (W)
- Brisbane Roar (W)2-0Melbourne Victory (W)
- Brisbane Roar (W)1-2Melbourne Victory (W)
- Melbourne Victory (W)1-2Brisbane Roar (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brisbane Roar (W) 1483 · Melbourne Victory (W) 1525
| Brisbane Roar (W) | Draw | Melbourne Victory (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 26% | 55% |
| Market | 20% | 23% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory (W) (rating 1483 vs 1525).
- H2H favours Brisbane Roar (W): 4-0-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brisbane Roar (W) | Melbourne Victory (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.8 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.6 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 1.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Roar (W) 4–0–2 Melbourne Victory (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/26 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne Victory (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Brisbane Roar (W) |
| 01/11/25 Australia A-League Women | Brisbane Roar (W) | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Melbourne Victory (W) |
| 19/04/25 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne Victory (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Brisbane Roar (W) |
| 08/01/25 Australia A-League Women | Brisbane Roar (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Melbourne Victory (W) |
| 03/02/24 Australia A-League Women | Brisbane Roar (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Melbourne Victory (W) |
| 15/10/23 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne Victory (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Brisbane Roar (W) |
Standings · Australia A-League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Coast Mariners FC (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Perth Glory (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Melbourne City (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Sydney FC (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 7 | Adelaide United (W) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix (W) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle Jets (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Brisbane Roar (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 | Canberra United (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brisbane Roar (W) | Melbourne Victory (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC (W) | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Western Sydney Wanderers (W) | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Wellington Phoenix (W) | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Canberra United (W) | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Perth Glory (W) | 5-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Newcastle Jets (W) | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brisbane Roar (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Sydney FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 24/10 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/10 | Central Coast Mariners FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Adelaide United (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 04/04 | Canberra United (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/03 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
2-1 | 5-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 20/03 | Newcastle Jets (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 4-2 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
Melbourne Victory (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Newcastle Jets (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/10 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 17/10 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Canberra United (W) Australia A-League Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/04 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Sydney FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 14/03 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/02 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brisbane Roar (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne Victory (W) win (56%). Probabilities: Brisbane Roar (W) 20%, draw 24%, Melbourne Victory (W) 56%.
How many goals are expected in Brisbane Roar (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W)?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Brisbane Roar (W) 0.92 · Melbourne Victory (W) 1.72), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Brisbane Roar (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.