Football · Australia A-League Women · 14/11, 05:00
Prediction: Melbourne Victory (W) vs Adelaide United (W)
Team pages: Melbourne Victory (W) · Adelaide United (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.33Total
Melbourne Victory (W)1.67
Adelaide United (W)0.66
1X2
Melbourne Victory (W)
Draw
Adelaide United (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Melbourne Victory (W)
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Adelaide United (W)
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melbourne Victory (W)
5–1
Adelaide United (W)
(6 last)
- Adelaide United (W)2-1Melbourne Victory (W)
- Melbourne Victory (W)1-0Adelaide United (W)
- Melbourne Victory (W)3-1Adelaide United (W)
- Adelaide United (W)1-3Melbourne Victory (W)
- Melbourne Victory (W)2-1Adelaide United (W)
- Adelaide United (W)2-3Melbourne Victory (W)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory (W) (rating 1525 vs 1429).
- H2H favours Melbourne Victory (W): 5-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melbourne Victory (W) | Adelaide United (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.5 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 1.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Victory (W) 5–0–1 Adelaide United (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 Australia A-League Women | Adelaide United (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Melbourne Victory (W) |
| 13/12/25 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne Victory (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Adelaide United (W) |
| 10/05/25 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne Victory (W) | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Adelaide United (W) |
| 04/05/25 Australia A-League Women | Adelaide United (W) | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Melbourne Victory (W) |
| 29/03/25 Australia A-League Women | Melbourne Victory (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Adelaide United (W) |
| 02/11/24 Australia A-League Women | Adelaide United (W) | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Melbourne Victory (W) |
Standings · Australia A-League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Coast Mariners FC (W) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Perth Glory (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Melbourne City (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Wellington Phoenix (W) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Sydney FC (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 8 | Brisbane Roar (W) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 9 | Canberra United (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 10 | Adelaide United (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| 11 | Newcastle Jets (W) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melbourne Victory (W) | Adelaide United (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Roar (W) | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Newcastle Jets (W) | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Wellington Phoenix (W) | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Melbourne City (W) | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Canberra United (W) | 3-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Perth Glory (W) | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Sydney FC (W) | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melbourne Victory (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Brisbane Roar (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 01/11 | Newcastle Jets (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/10 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 17/10 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Canberra United (W) Australia A-League Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/04 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Sydney FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 14/03 | Western Sydney Wanderers (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Adelaide United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/10 | Central Coast Mariners FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 24/10 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Sydney FC (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Brisbane Roar (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 03/04 | Wellington Phoenix (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | Newcastle Jets (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 22/03 | Canberra United (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 18/03 | Melbourne City (W) Australia A-League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 13/03 | Perth Glory (W) Australia A-League Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melbourne Victory (W) vs Adelaide United (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Victory (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Melbourne Victory (W) 61%, draw 26%, Adelaide United (W) 13%.
How many goals are expected in Melbourne Victory (W) vs Adelaide United (W)?
The model expects 2.33 goals (Melbourne Victory (W) 1.67 · Adelaide United (W) 0.66), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory (W) vs Adelaide United (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.