Football · Panama Liga Prom · 27/08, 01:00

Prediction: Chorrillo vs CD Arabe Unido Reserves

Team pages: Chorrillo · CD Arabe Unido Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Chorrillo1.31

CD Arabe Unido Reserves1.51

1X2

32% 26% 41%

Chorrillo Draw CD Arabe Unido Reserves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Chorrillo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWDWW

CD Arabe Unido Reserves 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDDLLWLD

Head-to-head

Chorrillo 0–1–2 CD Arabe Unido Reserves (3 last)

CD Arabe Unido Reserves4-1Chorrillo
Chorrillo0-0CD Arabe Unido Reserves
CD Arabe Unido Reserves4-1Chorrillo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chorrillo 1493 · CD Arabe Unido Reserves 1518

	Chorrillo	Draw	CD Arabe Unido Reserves
Our model	32%	27%	41%
Market	33%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Arabe Unido Reserves: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chorrillo	CD Arabe Unido Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.75▲	Pinn 3.03 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.30 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:28 +3’	2.55	3.50	2.30
10:01 +6’	2.75▲	3.50	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:07	3.00	3.03	2.17
11:09	3.03▲	3.08▲	2.13▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chorrillo 0–1–2 CD Arabe Unido Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Panama Liga Prom	CD Arabe Unido Reserves	4-1 HT 2-0	Chorrillo
29/08/25 Panama Liga Prom	Chorrillo	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Arabe Unido Reserves
26/02/25 Panama Liga Prom	CD Arabe Unido Reserves	4-1 HT 1-0	Chorrillo

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, East-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chorrillo	5	3	2	0	10	3	11
2	Potros Del Este	5	3	0	2	6	5	9
3	Tauro FC Reserves	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
4	Plaza Amador Reserves	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
5	Alianza FC Reserves	5	1	2	2	5	10	5
6	San Martin FC	5	1	0	4	8	11	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chorrillo	CD Arabe Unido Reserves
Plaza Amador Reserves	3-0 W	4-4 D
San Martin FC	4-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chorrillo (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chorrillo

WLLLLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
12/08	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
06/08	Alianza FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
30/07	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	–	4-1	–	–	W
24/07	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
30/04	Alianza FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
23/04	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-4	0-4	4	6	L
16/04	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
10/04	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-3	5	9	L
02/04	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	4-0	2	4	W

CD Arabe Unido Reserves

DWWDDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
16/08	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
08/08	UMECIT Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	3-0	4	2	W
31/07	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
26/07	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
22/05	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	1-2	2-2	10	10	D
13/05	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	2-2	4-4	8	4	D
09/05	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
05/05	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
01/05	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	1-1	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chorrillo vs CD Arabe Unido Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Arabe Unido Reserves win (41%). Probabilities: Chorrillo 32%, draw 26%, CD Arabe Unido Reserves 41%.

How many goals are expected in Chorrillo vs CD Arabe Unido Reserves?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Chorrillo 1.31 · CD Arabe Unido Reserves 1.51), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chorrillo vs CD Arabe Unido Reserves?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.