Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 29/08, 21:30

Prediction: Gremio (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)

Team pages: Gremio (W) · Sao Paulo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.22Total

Gremio (W)1.01

Sao Paulo (W)1.21

1X2

30% 31% 40%

Gremio (W) Draw Sao Paulo (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDWWLW

Sao Paulo (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Gremio (W) 0–1–5 Sao Paulo (W) (6 last)

Sao Paulo (W)3-1Gremio (W)
Gremio (W)1-2Sao Paulo (W)
Sao Paulo (W)0-0Gremio (W)
Gremio (W)1-2Sao Paulo (W)
Sao Paulo (W)4-0Gremio (W)
Gremio (W)0-3Sao Paulo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio (W) 1537 · Sao Paulo (W) 1600

	Gremio (W)	Draw	Sao Paulo (W)
Our model	29%	31%	39%
Market	30%	30%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (W) (rating 1537 vs 1600).
H2H favours Sao Paulo (W): 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio (W)	Sao Paulo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.00

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
X	3.10 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.17
2	2.00 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.45 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:23 +6’	3.50	3.10	2.00
22:32 +7’	3.00▼	3.00▼	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:39	2.71	3.17	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio (W) 0–1–5 Sao Paulo (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	3-1 HT 2-0	Gremio (W)
19/04/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Gremio (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo (W)
29/08/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Gremio (W)
26/08/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Gremio (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Sao Paulo (W)
21/08/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	4-0 HT 1-0	Gremio (W)
12/06/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Gremio (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sao Paulo (W)	17	13	2	2	31	11	41
2	Corinthians (W)	17	12	2	3	42	18	38
3	Palmeiras (W)	17	10	6	1	32	11	36
4	Ferroviaria (W)	17	8	7	2	23	14	31
5	Flamengo (W)	17	8	6	3	29	20	30
6	Bahia (W)	17	8	5	4	30	21	29
7	Cruzeiro (W)	17	7	7	3	30	19	28
8	Gremio (W)	17	8	3	6	23	16	27
9	Internacional (W)	17	8	3	6	21	17	27
10	Bragantino (W)	17	8	2	7	30	26	26
11	Fluminense RJ (W)	17	7	5	5	23	19	26
12	Santos (W)	17	6	5	6	22	23	23
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	17	4	4	9	17	25	16
14	Mixto EC (W)	17	2	6	9	10	27	12
15	EC Juventude (W)	17	2	5	10	9	22	11
16	America MG (W)	17	1	4	12	9	34	7
17	EC Vitoria (W)	17	1	4	12	15	45	7
18	Botafogo (W)	17	1	2	14	10	38	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio (W)	Sao Paulo (W)
Botafogo (W)	1-0 W	5-1 W
Cruzeiro (W)	2-0 W	2-1 W
America MG (W)	1-0 W	0-0 D
Flamengo (W)	2-2 D	2-1 W
EC Juventude (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
Mixto EC (W)	3-0 W	1-0 W
Bragantino (W)	3-0 W	1-0 W
Corinthians (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio (W)

WLWWDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
09/08	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	7	10	W
01/08	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
25/07	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
24/05	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/05	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
10/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
01/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
28/04	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	3	4	W

Sao Paulo (W)

DWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
16/08	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	5-1	4	1	W
09/08	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
02/08	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
25/07	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/05	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
19/05	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
05/05	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
27/04	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	14	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sao Paulo (W) win (40%). Probabilities: Gremio (W) 30%, draw 31%, Sao Paulo (W) 40%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

The model expects 2.22 goals (Gremio (W) 1.01 · Sao Paulo (W) 1.21), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.