Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 05/09, 21:30

Prediction: Ferroviaria (W) vs Flamengo (W)

Team pages: Ferroviaria (W) · Flamengo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Ferroviaria (W)1.31

Flamengo (W)0.97

1X2

43% 30% 27%

Ferroviaria (W) Draw Flamengo (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviaria (W) 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWDWDL

Flamengo (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDLDWWW

Head-to-head

Ferroviaria (W) 0–2–4 Flamengo (W) (6 last)

Flamengo (W)1-0Ferroviaria (W)
Flamengo (W)1-1Ferroviaria (W)
Ferroviaria (W)1-2Flamengo (W)
Flamengo (W)1-0Ferroviaria (W)
Flamengo (W)0-0Ferroviaria (W)
Ferroviaria (W)1-3Flamengo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviaria (W) 1580 · Flamengo (W) 1557

	Ferroviaria (W)	Draw	Flamengo (W)
Our model	43%	31%	26%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Flamengo (W): 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviaria (W)	Flamengo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.6	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	2.7 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.21
2	2.80 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.93 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:40 +19’	2.25	3.10	2.80
16:30 +37’	2.05▼	3.10	3.40▲
14:25 +2’	2.05	3.00▼	3.50▲
16:59 +6’	2.05	3.10▲	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:07	1.91	3.21	3.91
06:50	1.92▲	3.18▼	3.89▼
22:56 +1’	1.90▼	3.21▲	3.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviaria (W) 0–2–4 Flamengo (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Flamengo (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Ferroviaria (W)
12/05/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Flamengo (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Ferroviaria (W)
04/05/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Ferroviaria (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	Flamengo (W)
21/08/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Flamengo (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Ferroviaria (W)
11/02/24 Brazil Supercopa Women	Flamengo (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Ferroviaria (W)
04/12/23 Women’s Friendly	Ferroviaria (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	Flamengo (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sao Paulo (W)	17	13	2	2	31	11	41
2	Corinthians (W)	17	12	2	3	42	18	38
3	Palmeiras (W)	17	10	6	1	32	11	36
4	Ferroviaria (W)	17	8	7	2	23	14	31
5	Flamengo (W)	17	8	6	3	29	20	30
6	Bahia (W)	17	8	5	4	30	21	29
7	Cruzeiro (W)	17	7	7	3	30	19	28
8	Gremio (W)	17	8	3	6	23	16	27
9	Internacional (W)	17	8	3	6	21	17	27
10	Bragantino (W)	17	8	2	7	30	26	26
11	Fluminense RJ (W)	17	7	5	5	23	19	26
12	Santos (W)	17	6	5	6	22	23	23
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	17	4	4	9	17	25	16
14	Mixto EC (W)	17	2	6	9	10	27	12
15	EC Juventude (W)	17	2	5	10	9	22	11
16	America MG (W)	17	1	4	12	9	34	7
17	EC Vitoria (W)	17	1	4	12	15	45	7
18	Botafogo (W)	17	1	2	14	10	38	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviaria (W)	Flamengo (W)
Fluminense RJ (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
Internacional (W)	2-1 W	1-0 W
Atletico Mineiro (W)	3-2 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Flamengo (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferroviaria (W)

WDWWDWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
22/08	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
16/08	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
02/08	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
26/07	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
24/05	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	3-2	6	6	W
19/05	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
12/05	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-1	4	10	D
01/05	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W

Flamengo (W)

LDWWDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	3-0	4-1	5	2	W
16/08	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	3-2	6	5	W
11/08	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
03/08	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
25/07	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
23/05	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
16/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-0	13	6	W
12/05	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-1	4	10	D
05/05	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviaria (W) vs Flamengo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviaria (W) win (43%). Probabilities: Ferroviaria (W) 43%, draw 30%, Flamengo (W) 27%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviaria (W) vs Flamengo (W)?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Ferroviaria (W) 1.31 · Flamengo (W) 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviaria (W) vs Flamengo (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.