Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 01/09, 02:30

Prediction: Bahia (W) vs Palmeiras (W)

Team pages: Bahia (W) · Palmeiras (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

Bahia (W)0.82

Palmeiras (W)1.34

1X2

23% 28% 49%

Bahia (W) Draw Palmeiras (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Bahia (W) 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWDWLWDD

Palmeiras (W) 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDWDWD

Head-to-head

Bahia (W) 0–1–3 Palmeiras (W) (4 last)

Bahia (W)0-0Palmeiras (W)
Palmeiras (W)3-1Bahia (W)
Palmeiras (W)3-0Bahia (W)
Palmeiras (W)1-0Bahia (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bahia (W) 1544 · Palmeiras (W) 1612

	Bahia (W)	Draw	Palmeiras (W)
Our model	22%	31%	48%
Market	24%	26%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (W) (rating 1544 vs 1612).
H2H favours Palmeiras (W): 3-1-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bahia (W)	Palmeiras (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.4 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.2	4.2 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.40

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:11 +6’	3.80	3.40	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bahia (W) 0–1–3 Palmeiras (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Bahia (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Palmeiras (W)
21/04/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Palmeiras (W)	3-1 HT 0-0	Bahia (W)
18/03/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Palmeiras (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Bahia (W)
24/05/21 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Palmeiras (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Bahia (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sao Paulo (W)	17	13	2	2	31	11	41
2	Corinthians (W)	17	12	2	3	42	18	38
3	Palmeiras (W)	17	10	6	1	32	11	36
4	Ferroviaria (W)	17	8	7	2	23	14	31
5	Flamengo (W)	17	8	6	3	29	20	30
6	Bahia (W)	17	8	5	4	30	21	29
7	Cruzeiro (W)	17	7	7	3	30	19	28
8	Gremio (W)	17	8	3	6	23	16	27
9	Internacional (W)	17	8	3	6	21	17	27
10	Bragantino (W)	17	8	2	7	30	26	26
11	Fluminense RJ (W)	17	7	5	5	23	19	26
12	Santos (W)	17	6	5	6	22	23	23
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	17	4	4	9	17	25	16
14	Mixto EC (W)	17	2	6	9	10	27	12
15	EC Juventude (W)	17	2	5	10	9	22	11
16	America MG (W)	17	1	4	12	9	34	7
17	EC Vitoria (W)	17	1	4	12	15	45	7
18	Botafogo (W)	17	1	2	14	10	38	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bahia (W)	Palmeiras (W)
EC Juventude (W)	2-2 D	3-0 W
Atletico Mineiro (W)	3-0 W	4-1 W
Ferroviaria (W)	0-1 L	0-0 D
Botafogo (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Internacional (W)	3-0 W	2-1 W
Mixto EC (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bahia (W)

LDDWDWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
15/08	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
08/08	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	3-0	3-0	5	2	W
02/08	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
28/07	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-1	2	9	W
23/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	3-3	2	4	D
16/05	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	3-0	3-0	3	7	W
09/05	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
02/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/04	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	6	4	L

Palmeiras (W)

DDWWWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
16/08	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-0	10	2	W
08/08	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	1	9	D
02/08	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-1	9	1	W
25/07	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
24/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
19/05	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
12/05	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	4-1	8	4	W
02/05	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/04	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	7	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bahia (W) vs Palmeiras (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Palmeiras (W) win (49%). Probabilities: Bahia (W) 23%, draw 28%, Palmeiras (W) 49%.

How many goals are expected in Bahia (W) vs Palmeiras (W)?

The model expects 2.16 goals (Bahia (W) 0.82 · Palmeiras (W) 1.34), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bahia (W) vs Palmeiras (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.