Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 05/09, 21:30

Prediction: Sao Paulo (W) vs Gremio (W)

Team pages: Sao Paulo (W) · Gremio (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Sao Paulo (W)1.63

Gremio (W)0.63

1X2

61% 25% 13%

Sao Paulo (W) Draw Gremio (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWWWD

Gremio (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWWLWD

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo (W) 4–2–0 Gremio (W) (6 last)

Gremio (W)0-0Sao Paulo (W)
Sao Paulo (W)3-1Gremio (W)
Gremio (W)1-2Sao Paulo (W)
Sao Paulo (W)0-0Gremio (W)
Gremio (W)1-2Sao Paulo (W)
Sao Paulo (W)4-0Gremio (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo (W) 1607 · Gremio (W) 1527

	Sao Paulo (W)	Draw	Gremio (W)
Our model	61%	26%	13%
Market	62%	25%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (W) (rating 1607 vs 1527).
H2H favours Sao Paulo (W): 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo (W)	Gremio (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.45

X3.60

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.45▼	Pinn 1.48
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	5.75 → 6.50▲	Pinn 6.74

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:38 +21’	1.53	3.50	5.75
03:15 +13’	1.45▼	3.60▲	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:07 +1’	1.44	3.86	7.25
22:15 +1’	1.46▲	3.80▼	7.04▼
22:56 +1’	1.48▲	3.76▼	6.74▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo (W) 4–2–0 Gremio (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Gremio (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo (W)
21/04/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	3-1 HT 2-0	Gremio (W)
19/04/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Gremio (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo (W)
29/08/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Gremio (W)
26/08/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Gremio (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Sao Paulo (W)
21/08/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	4-0 HT 1-0	Gremio (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sao Paulo (W)	17	13	2	2	31	11	41
2	Corinthians (W)	17	12	2	3	42	18	38
3	Palmeiras (W)	17	10	6	1	32	11	36
4	Ferroviaria (W)	17	8	7	2	23	14	31
5	Flamengo (W)	17	8	6	3	29	20	30
6	Bahia (W)	17	8	5	4	30	21	29
7	Cruzeiro (W)	17	7	7	3	30	19	28
8	Gremio (W)	17	8	3	6	23	16	27
9	Internacional (W)	17	8	3	6	21	17	27
10	Bragantino (W)	17	8	2	7	30	26	26
11	Fluminense RJ (W)	17	7	5	5	23	19	26
12	Santos (W)	17	6	5	6	22	23	23
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	17	4	4	9	17	25	16
14	Mixto EC (W)	17	2	6	9	10	27	12
15	EC Juventude (W)	17	2	5	10	9	22	11
16	America MG (W)	17	1	4	12	9	34	7
17	EC Vitoria (W)	17	1	4	12	15	45	7
18	Botafogo (W)	17	1	2	14	10	38	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Paulo (W)	Gremio (W)
Mixto EC (W)	1-0 W	3-0 W
Botafogo (W)	5-1 W	1-0 W
Bragantino (W)	1-0 W	3-0 W
Cruzeiro (W)	2-1 W	2-0 W
EC Juventude (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Corinthians (W)	1-2 L	0-2 L
Flamengo (W)	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Paulo (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Paulo (W)

WLWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
22/08	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
16/08	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	5-1	4	1	W
09/08	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
02/08	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
25/07	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/05	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
19/05	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
05/05	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-1	2	3	W

Gremio (W)

LWWDDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
22/08	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
09/08	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	7	10	W
01/08	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
25/07	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
24/05	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/05	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
10/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
01/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo (W) vs Gremio (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo (W) 61%, draw 25%, Gremio (W) 13%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo (W) vs Gremio (W)?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Sao Paulo (W) 1.63 · Gremio (W) 0.63), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo (W) vs Gremio (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.