Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 07/09, 22:00

Prediction: Corinthians (W) vs Cruzeiro (W)

Team pages: Corinthians (W) · Cruzeiro (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Corinthians (W)2.12

Cruzeiro (W)1

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Corinthians (W) Draw Cruzeiro (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Corinthians (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWDLW

Cruzeiro (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWLWDL

Head-to-head

Corinthians (W) 3–2–1 Cruzeiro (W) (6 last)

Cruzeiro (W)0-1Corinthians (W)
Cruzeiro (W)3-2Corinthians (W)
Corinthians (W)1-0Cruzeiro (W)
Cruzeiro (W)2-2Corinthians (W)
Cruzeiro (W)1-1Corinthians (W)
Corinthians (W)4-2Cruzeiro (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Corinthians (W) 1576 · Cruzeiro (W) 1524

	Corinthians (W)	Draw	Cruzeiro (W)
Our model	62%	22%	16%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Corinthians (W) (rating 1576 vs 1524).
H2H favours Corinthians (W): 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Corinthians (W)	Cruzeiro (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.2	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.10

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Pinn 1.44
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.17
2	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 6.38 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:31 +9’	1.42	4.10	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:39	1.44	4.17	6.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Corinthians (W) 3–2–1 Cruzeiro (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/09/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Cruzeiro (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Corinthians (W)
19/05/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Cruzeiro (W)	3-2 HT 2-1	Corinthians (W)
14/09/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Corinthians (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Cruzeiro (W)
07/09/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Cruzeiro (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Corinthians (W)
06/08/25 Copa do Brazil Women	Cruzeiro (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Corinthians (W)
18/06/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Corinthians (W)	4-2 HT 1-1	Cruzeiro (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sao Paulo (W)	17	13	2	2	31	11	41
2	Corinthians (W)	17	12	2	3	42	18	38
3	Palmeiras (W)	17	10	6	1	32	11	36
4	Ferroviaria (W)	17	8	7	2	23	14	31
5	Flamengo (W)	17	8	6	3	29	20	30
6	Bahia (W)	17	8	5	4	30	21	29
7	Cruzeiro (W)	17	7	7	3	30	19	28
8	Gremio (W)	17	8	3	6	23	16	27
9	Internacional (W)	17	8	3	6	21	17	27
10	Bragantino (W)	17	8	2	7	30	26	26
11	Fluminense RJ (W)	17	7	5	5	23	19	26
12	Santos (W)	17	6	5	6	22	23	23
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	17	4	4	9	17	25	16
14	Mixto EC (W)	17	2	6	9	10	27	12
15	EC Juventude (W)	17	2	5	10	9	22	11
16	America MG (W)	17	1	4	12	9	34	7
17	EC Vitoria (W)	17	1	4	12	15	45	7
18	Botafogo (W)	17	1	2	14	10	38	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Corinthians (W)	Cruzeiro (W)
EC Vitoria (W)	4-0 W	2-2 D
Mixto EC (W)	4-1 W	2-1 W
Sao Paulo (W)	2-1 W	1-2 L
Gremio (W)	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Corinthians (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Corinthians (W)

WWLWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	14	2	W
22/08	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	1-3	9	2	L
15/08	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/08	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	4-1	3	2	W
03/08	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
26/07	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	4-0	6	3	W
26/05	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	3-0	4-1	8	7	W
19/05	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-2	2-3	4	3	L
12/05	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
01/05	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	9	5	W

Cruzeiro (W)

DWWDLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
22/08	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
15/08	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
09/08	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	2	10	L
01/08	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	4-0	5	1	W
25/07	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
24/05	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-2	6	8	D
19/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	3-2	6	3	W
09/05	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	4-0	8	0	W
01/05	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Corinthians (W) vs Cruzeiro (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Corinthians (W) win (62%). Probabilities: Corinthians (W) 62%, draw 22%, Cruzeiro (W) 16%.

How many goals are expected in Corinthians (W) vs Cruzeiro (W)?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Corinthians (W) 2.12 · Cruzeiro (W) 1), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Corinthians (W) vs Cruzeiro (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.