Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 05/09, 02:30
Prediction: Palmeiras (W) vs Bahia (W)
Team pages: Palmeiras (W) · Bahia (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Palmeiras (W)1.77
Bahia (W)0.57
1X2
Palmeiras (W)
Draw
Bahia (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Palmeiras (W)
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Bahia (W)
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Palmeiras (W)
3–2–0
Bahia (W)
(5 last)
- Bahia (W)1-1Palmeiras (W)
- Bahia (W)0-0Palmeiras (W)
- Palmeiras (W)3-1Bahia (W)
- Palmeiras (W)3-0Bahia (W)
- Palmeiras (W)1-0Bahia (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Palmeiras (W) 1614 · Bahia (W) 1557
| Palmeiras (W) | Draw | Bahia (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 24% | 10% |
| Market | 68% | 20% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (W) (rating 1614 vs 1557).
- H2H favours Palmeiras (W): 3-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Palmeiras (W) | Bahia (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 6 | 2.2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmeiras (W) 3–2–0 Bahia (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Bahia (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Palmeiras (W) |
| 02/05/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Bahia (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Palmeiras (W) |
| 21/04/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Palmeiras (W) | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Bahia (W) |
| 18/03/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Palmeiras (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Bahia (W) |
| 24/05/21 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Palmeiras (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Bahia (W) |
Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sao Paulo (W) | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 11 | 41 |
| 2 | Corinthians (W) | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 18 | 38 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (W) | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 11 | 36 |
| 4 | Ferroviaria (W) | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 31 |
| 5 | Flamengo (W) | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 20 | 30 |
| 6 | Bahia (W) | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 21 | 29 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro (W) | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 30 | 19 | 28 |
| 8 | Gremio (W) | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 16 | 27 |
| 9 | Internacional (W) | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 27 |
| 10 | Bragantino (W) | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 26 |
| 11 | Fluminense RJ (W) | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 26 |
| 12 | Santos (W) | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 23 | 23 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
| 14 | Mixto EC (W) | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 27 | 12 |
| 15 | EC Juventude (W) | 17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 22 | 11 |
| 16 | America MG (W) | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 34 | 7 |
| 17 | EC Vitoria (W) | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 7 |
| 18 | Botafogo (W) | 17 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 38 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Palmeiras (W) | Bahia (W) |
|---|---|---|
| EC Juventude (W) | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Ferroviaria (W) | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Internacional (W) | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Mixto EC (W) | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Botafogo (W) | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Atletico Mineiro (W) | 4-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Palmeiras (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/08 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 02/08 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 19/05 | Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Bahia (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/07 | Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 23/05 | Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Palmeiras (W) vs Bahia (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Palmeiras (W) win (67%). Probabilities: Palmeiras (W) 67%, draw 22%, Bahia (W) 12%.
How many goals are expected in Palmeiras (W) vs Bahia (W)?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Palmeiras (W) 1.77 · Bahia (W) 0.57), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras (W) vs Bahia (W)?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.