Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 30/08, 22:30
Prediction: Orense vs Macara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Orense1.27
Macara1.08
1X2
Orense
Draw
Macara
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Orense
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Macara
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Orense
3–1–2
Macara
(6 last)
- Macara1-2Orense
- Orense0-1Macara
- Orense1-0Macara
- Macara1-0Orense
- Orense1-0Macara
- Macara0-0Orense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Orense 1453 · Macara 1547
| Orense | Draw | Macara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macara (rating 1453 vs 1547).
- H2H favours Orense: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Orense | Macara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.7 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 44/44/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.9 | 1.9 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.4 | 4.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Orense 3–1–2 Macara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Orense |
| 06/03/26 Copa Sudamericana | Orense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Macara |
| 17/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Macara |
| 16/02/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Orense |
| 28/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Macara |
| 13/04/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Orense |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 26 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 64 | 26 | 67 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 44 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 45 | 23 | 43 |
| 4 | Macara | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 26 | 42 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 20 | 41 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 20 | 39 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Libertad | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 37 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 35 |
| 9 | Mushuc Runa | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 33 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 33 |
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 32 | 32 |
| 12 | Emelec | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 32 |
| 13 | Orense | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 39 | 30 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 23 | 37 | 26 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 28 | 24 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 37 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Orense | Macara |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Delfin SC | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| SD Aucas | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Mushuc Runa | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Tecnico Universitario | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Macara (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 26/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 23/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 17/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 11/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 07/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
Macara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 26/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Orense vs Macara?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Orense win (40%). Probabilities: Orense 40%, draw 30%, Macara 30%.
How many goals are expected in Orense vs Macara?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Orense 1.27 · Macara 1.08), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Orense vs Macara?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.