Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 10/09, 22:30

Prediction: San Antonio FC Cotacachi vs Atletico FC Guayaquil

Team pages: San Antonio FC Cotacachi · Atletico FC Guayaquil

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

San Antonio FC Cotacachi1.04

Atletico FC Guayaquil0.98

1X2

36% 30% 33%

San Antonio FC Cotacachi Draw Atletico FC Guayaquil

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

San Antonio FC Cotacachi 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWWDDL

Atletico FC Guayaquil 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLDWLD

Head-to-head

San Antonio FC Cotacachi 0–1–1 Atletico FC Guayaquil (2 last)

Atletico FC Guayaquil4-1San Antonio FC Cotacachi
San Antonio FC Cotacachi1-1Atletico FC Guayaquil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Antonio FC Cotacachi 1498 · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1520

	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	Draw	Atletico FC Guayaquil
Our model	35%	33%	32%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	Atletico FC Guayaquil
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/56/11%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.1	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.20

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 19:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.38▲	Bet365 2.38
X	3.00 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	2.88 → 2.60▼	Pinn 2.95 ★

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:33 +3’	2.30	3.00	2.88
01:57 +1’	2.25▼	3.10▲	2.88
09:26 +6’	2.10▼	3.20▲	3.00▲
14:19 +3’	2.15▲	3.20	2.90▼
16:19 +7’	2.00▼	3.30▲	3.20▲
19:06 +25’	2.38▲	3.20▼	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:09 +23’	2.14	3.04	3.39
13:57 +25’	2.24▲	3.10▲	3.11▼
16:21 +5’	1.99▼	3.17▲	3.64▲
17:47 +104’	2.35▲	3.05▼	2.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Antonio FC Cotacachi 0–1–1 Atletico FC Guayaquil

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Atletico FC Guayaquil	4-1 HT 1-1	San Antonio FC Cotacachi
29/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico FC Guayaquil

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Juniors	24	11	10	3	29	16	43
2	Atletico FC Guayaquil	24	9	12	3	27	17	39
3	Club 9 de Octubre	24	9	12	3	25	17	39
4	Vinotinto Ecuador	24	10	7	7	30	19	37
5	CD Cuenca Jrs	24	9	8	7	21	25	35
6	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	24	7	11	6	26	25	32

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	Atletico FC Guayaquil
Vinotinto Ecuador	2-4 L	0-1 L
Independiente Juniors	0-0 D	0-0 D
Club 9 de Octubre	0-0 D	2-2 D
El Nacional	1-0 W	3-0 W
Gualaceo SC	2-1 W	0-0 D
Cumbaya	0-0 D	3-0 W
CD Vargas Torres	1-1 D	0-1 L
CD Cuenca Jrs	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico FC Guayaquil (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Antonio FC Cotacachi

LDLDWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	2-4	2	6	L
27/08	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
20/08	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
13/08	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
06/08	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/07	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	0	4	W
22/07	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
16/07	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	1-4	2	6	L
11/07	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
03/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	0	4	L

Atletico FC Guayaquil

WDWDWLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	2-2	4	13	D
27/08	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
20/08	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	3-0	3-0	1	3	W
15/08	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
06/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
30/07	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
24/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	4-1	2	6	W
11/07	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
02/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-0	3-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Antonio FC Cotacachi vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Antonio FC Cotacachi win (36%). Probabilities: San Antonio FC Cotacachi 36%, draw 30%, Atletico FC Guayaquil 33%.

How many goals are expected in San Antonio FC Cotacachi vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

The model expects 2.02 goals (San Antonio FC Cotacachi 1.04 · Atletico FC Guayaquil 0.98), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in San Antonio FC Cotacachi vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.