Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 24/09, 22:30
Prediction: Independiente Juniors vs Vinotinto Ecuador
Team pages: Independiente Juniors · Vinotinto Ecuador
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.22Total
Independiente Juniors1.2
Vinotinto Ecuador1.02
1X2
Independiente Juniors
Draw
Vinotinto Ecuador
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Juniors
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Vinotinto Ecuador
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Juniors
2–2–2
Vinotinto Ecuador
(6 last)
- Independiente Juniors2-0Vinotinto Ecuador
- Vinotinto Ecuador2-2Independiente Juniors
- Vinotinto Ecuador3-2Independiente Juniors
- Independiente Juniors1-1Vinotinto Ecuador
- Vinotinto Ecuador1-0Independiente Juniors
- Independiente Juniors4-0Vinotinto Ecuador
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Juniors 1543 · Vinotinto Ecuador 1550
| Independiente Juniors | Draw | Vinotinto Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 32% | 30% |
| Market | 39% | 31% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Juniors | Vinotinto Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/78/0% | 44/44/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.4 | 2.4 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Juniors 2–2–2 Vinotinto Ecuador
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
| 03/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Vinotinto Ecuador | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Independiente Juniors |
| 30/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Vinotinto Ecuador | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Independiente Juniors |
| 11/07/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
| 13/06/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Vinotinto Ecuador | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente Juniors |
| 26/04/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Promotion Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 26 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 31 | 20 | 44 |
| 2 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 33 | 19 | 43 |
| 3 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 26 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 31 | 18 | 43 |
| 4 | Club 9 de Octubre | 26 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 42 |
| 5 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 27 | 38 |
| 6 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 26 | 29 | 32 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Juniors | Vinotinto Ecuador |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico FC Guayaquil | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| CD Cuenca Jrs | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 0-0 D | 4-2 W |
| El Nacional | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| LDU Portoviejo | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 5 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Vinotinto Ecuador (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 12/09 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/08 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 20/08 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 06/08 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 23/07 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 17/07 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Vinotinto Ecuador
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/09 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/09 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 4-2 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 27/08 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 13/08 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 08/08 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 29/07 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 23/07 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 15/07 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Juniors vs Vinotinto Ecuador?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Juniors win (39%). Probabilities: Independiente Juniors 39%, draw 31%, Vinotinto Ecuador 30%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Juniors vs Vinotinto Ecuador?
The model expects 2.22 goals (Independiente Juniors 1.2 · Vinotinto Ecuador 1.02), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Juniors vs Vinotinto Ecuador?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.