Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 27/08, 00:00

Prediction: Deportivo Merlo vs CS Dock Sud

Team pages: Deportivo Merlo · CS Dock Sud

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Deportivo Merlo1.12

CS Dock Sud1.08

1X2

35% 32% 33%

Deportivo Merlo Draw CS Dock Sud

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Merlo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLDLLL

CS Dock Sud 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Deportivo Merlo 3–3–0 CS Dock Sud (6 last)

CS Dock Sud1-1Deportivo Merlo
CS Dock Sud1-1Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo0-0CS Dock Sud
CS Dock Sud0-1Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo3-0CS Dock Sud
CS Dock Sud1-2Deportivo Merlo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Merlo 1476 · CS Dock Sud 1504

	Deportivo Merlo	Draw	CS Dock Sud
Our model	35%	32%	33%
Market	35%	32%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Merlo: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Merlo	CS Dock Sud
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/25/63%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	3.6 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.55

X2.80

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
06:09 +3’	2.55	2.80	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Merlo 3–3–0 CS Dock Sud

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CS Dock Sud	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Merlo
18/10/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CS Dock Sud	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Merlo
31/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	0-0 HT 0-0	CS Dock Sud
11/08/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CS Dock Sud	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Merlo
23/03/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	3-0 HT 1-0	CS Dock Sud
09/10/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CS Dock Sud	1-2 HT 1-2	Deportivo Merlo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	20	12	5	3	27	11	41
2	Talleres Remedios	20	11	5	4	22	10	38
3	Villa Dalmine	20	10	7	3	24	10	37
4	Arsenal de Sarandi	20	10	7	3	27	14	37
5	Atletico Camioneros	20	9	7	4	21	14	34
6	Sportivo Italiano	20	9	6	5	21	17	33
7	Real Pilar	20	9	4	7	23	22	31
8	Deportivo Merlo	20	8	7	5	24	24	31
9	Club Comunicaciones	20	8	6	6	23	20	30
10	San Martin De Burzaco	20	7	7	6	22	19	28
11	Deportivo Armenio	20	7	4	9	21	25	25
12	Argentino Merlo	20	6	6	8	14	17	24
13	Deportivo Laferrere	20	6	6	8	21	27	24
14	CS Dock Sud	20	5	8	7	20	18	23
15	Argentino Quilmes	20	5	8	7	19	19	23
16	Defensores Unidos	20	5	8	7	18	21	23
17	Deportivo Liniers	20	6	5	9	13	20	23
18	CSD Flandria	20	6	4	10	16	24	22
19	UAI Urquiza	20	3	11	6	12	16	20
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	20	4	7	9	12	23	19
21	Villa San Carlos	20	3	7	10	19	27	16
22	CA Ituzaingo	20	1	5	14	14	35	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Merlo	CS Dock Sud
Talleres Remedios	0-2 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Laferrere	2-1 W	1-2 L
CA Brown de Adrogue	1-0 W	0-1 L
Deportivo Armenio	3-2 W	1-1 D
CSD Flandria	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Merlo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Merlo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	0-4	7	1	L
04/07	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	–	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	–	0-5	–	–	L
15/06	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	6	D
06/06	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
03/06	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
27/05	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
23/05	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	0	7	W
17/05	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-2	1	8	W
09/05	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	8	2	L

CS Dock Sud

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
07/06	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
30/05	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	8	0	L
26/05	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
23/05	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
16/05	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/05	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/05	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	9	12	W
26/04	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	5	10	L
19/04	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	3-0	10	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Merlo vs CS Dock Sud?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Merlo win (35%). Probabilities: Deportivo Merlo 35%, draw 32%, CS Dock Sud 33%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Merlo vs CS Dock Sud?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Deportivo Merlo 1.12 · CS Dock Sud 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Merlo vs CS Dock Sud?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.