Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 06/09, 00:00

Prediction: Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos

Team pages: Deportivo Merlo · Defensores Unidos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Deportivo Merlo1.27

Defensores Unidos0.92

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Deportivo Merlo Draw Defensores Unidos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Merlo 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLDLDDLL

Defensores Unidos 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLLWWD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Merlo 1–4–1 Defensores Unidos (6 last)

Defensores Unidos1-1Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo2-2Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos0-1Deportivo Merlo
Defensores Unidos2-1Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo1-1Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos0-0Deportivo Merlo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Merlo 1459 · Defensores Unidos 1475

	Deportivo Merlo	Draw	Defensores Unidos
Our model	43%	31%	26%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Merlo	Defensores Unidos
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	5.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.20 ★
X	2.90 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10
2	3.50 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.54

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:37 +4’	2.05	2.90	3.50
17:06 +4’	1.80▼	3.20▲	3.90▲
00:56 +7’	2.00▲	3.10▼	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:03	2.20	2.69	3.60
06:48 +1’	2.20	2.66▼	3.54▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Merlo 1–4–1 Defensores Unidos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Merlo
10/09/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	2-2 HT 1-2	Defensores Unidos
14/05/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	0-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Merlo
24/10/21 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Merlo
26/06/21 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-1 HT 1-1	Defensores Unidos
04/04/18 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Merlo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	33	18	8	7	49	27	62
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	33	16	12	5	44	22	60
3	Atletico Camioneros	33	16	12	5	39	20	60
4	Villa Dalmine	33	16	12	5	35	16	60
5	Talleres Remedios	33	17	9	7	35	17	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	33	15	10	8	38	25	55
7	Real Pilar	33	14	10	9	37	32	52
8	Deportivo Armenio	33	13	8	12	35	37	47
9	Club Comunicaciones	33	12	10	11	33	31	46
10	Deportivo Laferrere	33	12	10	11	39	42	46
11	CS Dock Sud	33	10	13	10	38	34	43
12	Argentino Merlo	33	10	11	12	30	32	41
13	San Martin De Burzaco	33	9	13	11	31	36	40
14	Deportivo Merlo	33	9	12	12	34	48	39
15	Villa San Carlos	33	9	11	13	34	38	38
16	Argentino Quilmes	33	8	13	12	28	35	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	33	8	12	13	25	33	36
18	CSD Flandria	33	9	8	16	28	39	35
19	Defensores Unidos	33	7	12	14	28	36	33
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	33	7	12	14	21	35	33
21	UAI Urquiza	33	3	19	11	15	29	28
22	CA Ituzaingo	33	1	11	21	19	51	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Merlo	Defensores Unidos
Atletico Camioneros	0-0 D	0-0 D
Sportivo Italiano	0-4 L	2-0 W
San Martin De Burzaco	1-1 D	2-0 W
Villa San Carlos	1-2 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Liniers	1-1 D	2-3 L
Real Pilar	3-2 W	1-2 L
UAI Urquiza	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Merlo

DWDLDLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
27/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
09/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	0-4	7	1	L
02/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
26/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
18/07	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	4	10	D
15/07	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-2	0	6	W
10/07	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D

Defensores Unidos

LLDDLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
25/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
22/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	6	8	W
16/08	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	3	10	L
08/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-3	6	7	L
01/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
25/07	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
18/07	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
14/07	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Merlo win (44%). Probabilities: Deportivo Merlo 44%, draw 30%, Defensores Unidos 26%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Deportivo Merlo 1.27 · Defensores Unidos 0.92), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.