Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 05/09, 20:00

Prediction: Villa Dalmine vs Arsenal de Sarandi

Team pages: Villa Dalmine · Arsenal de Sarandi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.5Total

Villa Dalmine0.76

Arsenal de Sarandi0.74

1X2

33% 36% 32%

Villa Dalmine Draw Arsenal de Sarandi

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

0-0 23%

Recent form · 10 last

Villa Dalmine 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLWWDD

Arsenal de Sarandi 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDLDWW

Head-to-head

Villa Dalmine 0–1–1 Arsenal de Sarandi (2 last)

Arsenal de Sarandi1-1Villa Dalmine
Villa Dalmine1-3Arsenal de Sarandi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Villa Dalmine 1536 · Arsenal de Sarandi 1523

	Villa Dalmine	Draw	Arsenal de Sarandi
Our model	31%	39%	30%
Market	34%	33%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 1.5 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Villa Dalmine	Arsenal de Sarandi
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X2.70

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.90

Under 1.751.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.38▼	Pinn 2.44
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	2.70 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.16 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:31 +7’	2.63	2.70	2.70
20:33 +3’	2.38▼	2.70	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:33 +2’	2.52	2.57	3.15
03:26	2.44▼	2.64▲	3.16▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Villa Dalmine 0–1–1 Arsenal de Sarandi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Arsenal de Sarandi	1-1 HT 1-1	Villa Dalmine
30/03/19 Argentina Nacional B	Villa Dalmine	1-3 HT 0-1	Arsenal de Sarandi

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	33	18	8	7	49	27	62
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	33	16	12	5	44	22	60
3	Atletico Camioneros	33	16	12	5	39	20	60
4	Villa Dalmine	33	16	12	5	35	16	60
5	Talleres Remedios	33	17	9	7	35	17	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	33	15	10	8	38	25	55
7	Real Pilar	33	14	10	9	37	32	52
8	Deportivo Armenio	33	13	8	12	35	37	47
9	Club Comunicaciones	33	12	10	11	33	31	46
10	Deportivo Laferrere	33	12	10	11	39	42	46
11	CS Dock Sud	33	10	13	10	38	34	43
12	Argentino Merlo	33	10	11	12	30	32	41
13	San Martin De Burzaco	33	9	13	11	31	36	40
14	Deportivo Merlo	33	9	12	12	34	48	39
15	Villa San Carlos	33	9	11	13	34	38	38
16	Argentino Quilmes	33	8	13	12	28	35	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	33	8	12	13	25	33	36
18	CSD Flandria	33	9	8	16	28	39	35
19	Defensores Unidos	33	7	12	14	28	36	33
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	33	7	12	14	21	35	33
21	UAI Urquiza	33	3	19	11	15	29	28
22	CA Ituzaingo	33	1	11	21	19	51	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Villa Dalmine	Arsenal de Sarandi
Argentino Merlo	0-0 D	0-0 D
Talleres Remedios	0-0 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Laferrere	2-0 W	1-1 D
CA Brown de Adrogue	1-0 W	1-1 D
Deportivo Armenio	0-1 L	0-0 D
CSD Flandria	2-1 W	1-0 W
Argentino Quilmes	0-0 D	0-1 L
Defensores Unidos	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Villa Dalmine (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villa Dalmine

WDDDWLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
25/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
22/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
15/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
08/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
01/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
25/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
18/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
15/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
10/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	2	6	W

Arsenal de Sarandi

WLWDDDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-0	2	8	W
25/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
22/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
09/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
25/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
18/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
14/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
10/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villa Dalmine vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a draw (36%). Probabilities: Villa Dalmine 33%, draw 36%, Arsenal de Sarandi 32%.

How many goals are expected in Villa Dalmine vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

The model expects 1.5 goals (Villa Dalmine 0.76 · Arsenal de Sarandi 0.74), with a 56% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Villa Dalmine vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.