Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 30/08, 22:00

Prediction: Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito

Team pages: Guayaquil City · LDU Quito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Guayaquil City0.78

LDU Quito1.29

1X2

22% 30% 48%

Guayaquil City Draw LDU Quito

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Guayaquil City 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDDDWW

LDU Quito 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDWWLW

Head-to-head

Guayaquil City 0–1–5 LDU Quito (6 last)

LDU Quito1-0Guayaquil City
LDU Quito2-0Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City1-2LDU Quito
LDU Quito2-0Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City2-2LDU Quito
LDU Quito3-1Guayaquil City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guayaquil City 1492 · LDU Quito 1550

	Guayaquil City	Draw	LDU Quito
Our model	21%	31%	47%
Market	23%	28%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LDU Quito (rating 1492 vs 1550).
H2H favours LDU Quito: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guayaquil City	LDU Quito
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	0.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/25/63%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.4	3.3 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.30

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:21 +6’	4.00	3.30	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guayaquil City 0–1–5 LDU Quito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	1-0 HT 1-0	Guayaquil City
05/09/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	2-0 HT 1-0	Guayaquil City
09/04/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	1-2 HT 1-0	LDU Quito
16/10/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	2-0 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City
22/05/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	2-2 HT 0-0	LDU Quito
03/10/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	3-1 HT 3-0	Guayaquil City

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	26	22	1	3	64	26	67
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	26	12	7	7	45	23	43
3	Macara	25	12	6	7	33	25	42
4	SD Aucas	25	12	5	8	29	26	41
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	26	10	9	7	28	20	39
6	LDU Quito	25	11	5	9	24	20	38
7	Leones FC	26	9	8	9	28	28	35
8	Club Atletico Libertad	25	9	7	9	28	29	34
9	Mushuc Runa	26	8	9	9	32	34	33
10	Guayaquil City	26	8	9	9	25	29	33
11	Emelec	25	8	8	9	21	29	32
12	Deportivo Cuenca	26	9	5	12	22	32	32
13	Orense	26	8	6	12	30	39	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	26	8	2	16	23	37	26
15	Delfin SC	25	6	6	13	17	27	24
16	Manta FC	26	4	5	17	12	37	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guayaquil City	LDU Quito
Club Atletico Libertad	2-2 D	0-0 D
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-0 D	0-1 L
Leones FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
SD Aucas	0-1 L	1-0 W
Independiente del Valle	2-4 L	0-2 L
Orense	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guayaquil City

LDLLDDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	2-2	1	3	D
10/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
27/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
23/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
08/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	–	0-1	–	–	L
31/05	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	2-4	0	5	L
23/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	2-2	1	5	D
19/05	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	6	1	L

LDU Quito

WLDLLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
08/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
04/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-1	8	2	W
27/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
23/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
16/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
12/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
05/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LDU Quito win (48%). Probabilities: Guayaquil City 22%, draw 30%, LDU Quito 48%.

How many goals are expected in Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Guayaquil City 0.78 · LDU Quito 1.29), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.