Football · Bulgaria First League · 13/09, 19:30
Prediction: Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Team pages: Botev Plovdiv · Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Botev Plovdiv1.53
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.82
1X2
Botev Plovdiv
Draw
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Botev Plovdiv
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Botev Plovdiv
2–1–3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
(6 last)
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv2-1Botev Plovdiv
- Botev Plovdiv0-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Botev Plovdiv1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-0Botev Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-4Botev Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-1Botev Plovdiv
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botev Plovdiv 1497 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1487
| Botev Plovdiv | Draw | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Botev Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.1 | 1.4 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 5.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Botev Plovdiv 2–1–3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 03/05/26 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 08/04/26 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 12/02/26 Bulgaria Cup | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 01/11/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0-4 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 01/12/24 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Botev Plovdiv |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 24 |
| 2 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | CSKA Sofia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Slavia Sofia | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 9 |
| 9 | Septemvri Sofia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 8 |
| 10 | Botev Vratsa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 7 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 5 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 4 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Botev Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Levski Sofia | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Spartak Varna | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Cherno More Varna | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Botev Plovdiv (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botev Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 10/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
3-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 21/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 25/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 28/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 16/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 26/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Botev Plovdiv win (53%). Probabilities: Botev Plovdiv 53%, draw 27%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 19%.
How many goals are expected in Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Botev Plovdiv 1.53 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.82), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.