Football · Bulgaria First League · 13/09, 14:15

Prediction: Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna

Team pages: Slavia Sofia · Spartak Varna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Slavia Sofia1.4

Spartak Varna1.12

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Slavia Sofia Draw Spartak Varna

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Slavia Sofia 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLDWDDL

Spartak Varna 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLLLDD

Head-to-head

Slavia Sofia 3–2–1 Spartak Varna (6 last)

Spartak Varna2-1Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia4-0Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna1-1Slavia Sofia
Spartak Varna1-3Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia3-1Spartak Varna
Slavia Sofia2-2Spartak Varna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Slavia Sofia 1508 · Spartak Varna 1496

	Slavia Sofia	Draw	Spartak Varna
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	42%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Slavia Sofia: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Slavia Sofia	Spartak Varna
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	1.4 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.68 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:29 +8’	2.15	3.25	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:42 +50’	2.12	3.09	3.68

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Slavia Sofia 3–2–1 Spartak Varna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Bulgaria First League	Spartak Varna	2-1 HT 1-1	Slavia Sofia
06/03/26 Bulgaria First League	Slavia Sofia	4-0 HT 2-0	Spartak Varna
28/09/25 Bulgaria First League	Spartak Varna	1-1 HT 1-0	Slavia Sofia
09/12/24 Bulgaria First League	Spartak Varna	1-3 HT 0-1	Slavia Sofia
09/08/24 Bulgaria First League	Slavia Sofia	3-1 HT 2-1	Spartak Varna
30/10/22 Bulgaria First League	Slavia Sofia	2-2 HT 0-1	Spartak Varna

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	8	8	0	0	21	4	24
2	Ludogorets Razgrad	8	6	2	0	14	6	20
3	CSKA Sofia	7	5	2	0	17	5	17
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	8	5	1	2	15	8	16
5	Arda Kardzhali	8	5	1	2	13	7	16
6	Slavia Sofia	8	2	4	2	8	6	10
7	Botev Plovdiv	8	3	1	4	11	14	10
8	Spartak Varna	8	2	3	3	10	14	9
9	Septemvri Sofia	8	2	2	4	7	13	8
10	Botev Vratsa	8	2	1	5	7	17	7
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	8	2	0	6	4	10	6
12	Cherno More Varna	8	1	1	6	8	17	4
13	Dunav Ruse	8	1	1	6	7	15	4
14	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	7	0	3	4	8	14	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Slavia Sofia	Spartak Varna
Levski Sofia	1-2 L	0-6 L
Septemvri Sofia	1-1 D	0-1 L
Ludogorets Razgrad	1-1 D	1-1 D
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	1-1 D	3-0 W
CSKA Sofia	0-0 D	1-1 D
Montana	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Slavia Sofia (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Slavia Sofia

LLWDLDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
28/08	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
22/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	2	9	D
10/08	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
31/07	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
24/07	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
20/07	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
22/05	Montana Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
18/05	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
13/05	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	7	4	L

Spartak Varna

WWDWWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
22/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-6	1	2	L
17/08	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
10/08	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-3	2-3	1	2	L
03/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	1	10	W
26/07	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
17/07	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
22/05	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
18/05	Montana Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Slavia Sofia win (42%). Probabilities: Slavia Sofia 42%, draw 29%, Spartak Varna 29%.

How many goals are expected in Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Slavia Sofia 1.4 · Spartak Varna 1.12), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.