Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 27/08, 22:30

Prediction: Vinotinto Ecuador vs Atletico FC Guayaquil

Team pages: Vinotinto Ecuador · Atletico FC Guayaquil

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.78Total

Vinotinto Ecuador0.98

Atletico FC Guayaquil0.8

1X2

38% 33% 29%

Vinotinto Ecuador Draw Atletico FC Guayaquil

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Vinotinto Ecuador 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLLWDD

Atletico FC Guayaquil 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWDWLDW

Head-to-head

Vinotinto Ecuador 1–1 Atletico FC Guayaquil (2 last)

Vinotinto Ecuador3-0Atletico FC Guayaquil
Atletico FC Guayaquil1-0Vinotinto Ecuador

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vinotinto Ecuador 1481 · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1541

	Vinotinto Ecuador	Draw	Atletico FC Guayaquil
Our model	37%	36%	27%
Market	40%	31%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 1.78 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico FC Guayaquil (rating 1481 vs 1541).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vinotinto Ecuador	Atletico FC Guayaquil
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.90

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +2’	2.25	2.90	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vinotinto Ecuador 1–0–1 Atletico FC Guayaquil

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Vinotinto Ecuador	3-0 HT 2-0	Atletico FC Guayaquil
26/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Atletico FC Guayaquil	1-0 HT 0-0	Vinotinto Ecuador

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Juniors	22	10	9	3	28	16	39
2	Atletico FC Guayaquil	22	9	11	2	25	14	38
3	Club 9 de Octubre	22	9	10	3	22	14	37
4	CD Cuenca Jrs	22	9	7	6	20	23	34
5	Vinotinto Ecuador	22	8	7	7	25	17	31
6	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	22	7	10	5	24	21	31

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vinotinto Ecuador	Atletico FC Guayaquil
CD Vargas Torres	0-0 D	0-1 L
LDU Portoviejo	0-0 D	1-0 W
CD Cuenca Jrs	2-0 W	0-0 D
San Antonio FC Cotacachi	0-1 L	4-1 W
Independiente Juniors	0-2 L	0-0 D
El Nacional	2-1 W	3-0 W
22 de Julio	1-0 W	1-0 W
Gualaceo SC	1-2 L	0-0 D
Club 9 de Octubre	1-2 L	0-0 D
Cumbaya	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 4 L	5 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico FC Guayaquil (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vinotinto Ecuador

DLLWWLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
08/08	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
23/07	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
15/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
11/07	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-0	–	–	W
01/07	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
09/06	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-2	1-2	1	7	L
04/06	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-1	2	6	D

Atletico FC Guayaquil

DWWDWDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	3-0	3-0	1	3	W
15/08	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
06/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
30/07	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
24/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	4-1	2	6	W
11/07	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
02/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-0	3-0	9	2	W
09/06	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/06	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vinotinto Ecuador vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vinotinto Ecuador win (38%). Probabilities: Vinotinto Ecuador 38%, draw 33%, Atletico FC Guayaquil 29%.

How many goals are expected in Vinotinto Ecuador vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

The model expects 1.78 goals (Vinotinto Ecuador 0.98 · Atletico FC Guayaquil 0.8), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Vinotinto Ecuador vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.