Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 04/09, 22:30

Prediction: 22 de Julio vs Gualaceo SC

Team pages: 22 de Julio · Gualaceo SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.93Total

22 de Julio0.66

Gualaceo SC1.27

1X2

19% 29% 52%

22 de Julio Draw Gualaceo SC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-1 17%

Recent form · 10 last

22 de Julio 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Gualaceo SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

22 de Julio 1–3–0 Gualaceo SC (4 last)

Gualaceo SC0-122 de Julio
22 de Julio0-0Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC2-222 de Julio
22 de Julio1-1Gualaceo SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 22 de Julio 1397 · Gualaceo SC 1515

	22 de Julio	Draw	Gualaceo SC
Our model	18%	32%	50%
Market	21%	26%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 1.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gualaceo SC (rating 1397 vs 1515).
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	22 de Julio	Gualaceo SC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.2 / 1.8	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	38/50/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.5	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.40

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:07 +8’	4.33	3.40	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · 22 de Julio 1–3–0 Gualaceo SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Gualaceo SC	0-1	22 de Julio
29/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	22 de Julio	0-0 HT 0-0	Gualaceo SC
04/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Gualaceo SC	2-2 HT 0-1	22 de Julio
26/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	22 de Julio	1-1 HT 0-1	Gualaceo SC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Vargas Torres	23	7	10	6	20	16	28
2	LDU Portoviejo	23	7	7	9	17	22	28
3	Cumbaya	23	5	12	6	22	22	27
4	Gualaceo SC	23	8	8	7	22	16	26
5	El Nacional	23	2	6	15	15	35	9
6	22 de Julio	23	4	3	16	10	34	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	22 de Julio	Gualaceo SC
CD Cuenca Jrs	0-1 L	3-0 W
Independiente Juniors	0-2 L	2-3 L
El Nacional	1-3 L	3-0 W
Club 9 de Octubre	0-1 L	0-0 D
Vinotinto Ecuador	0-1 L	2-1 W
Cumbaya	0-4 L	1-0 W
Atletico FC Guayaquil	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 7 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gualaceo SC (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

22 de Julio

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-3	9	2	L
21/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-2	–	–	L
14/08	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/08	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
31/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	1-3	5	6	L
25/07	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
18/07	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/07	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/07	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-4	2	4	L
09/06	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-1	–	–	L

Gualaceo SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	5	7	W
20/08	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
15/08	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
06/08	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-2	–	–	L
01/08	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
24/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
18/07	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/07	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
01/07	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	2-1	0	4	W
10/06	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 22 de Julio vs Gualaceo SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gualaceo SC win (52%). Probabilities: 22 de Julio 19%, draw 29%, Gualaceo SC 52%.

How many goals are expected in 22 de Julio vs Gualaceo SC?

The model expects 1.93 goals (22 de Julio 0.66 · Gualaceo SC 1.27), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in 22 de Julio vs Gualaceo SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.