Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 05/09, 02:00
Prediction: El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo
Team pages: El Nacional · LDU Portoviejo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.84Total
El Nacional0.87
LDU Portoviejo0.97
1X2
El Nacional
Draw
LDU Portoviejo
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
El Nacional
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
LDU Portoviejo
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
El Nacional
0–1–5
LDU Portoviejo
(6 last)
- El Nacional0-1LDU Portoviejo
- LDU Portoviejo2-1El Nacional
- El Nacional1-1LDU Portoviejo
- LDU Portoviejo2-0El Nacional
- El Nacional1-2LDU Portoviejo
- LDU Portoviejo3-0El Nacional
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · El Nacional 1450 · LDU Portoviejo 1497
| El Nacional | Draw | LDU Portoviejo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Market | 33% | 29% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LDU Portoviejo (rating 1450 vs 1497).
- H2H favours LDU Portoviejo: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| El Nacional | LDU Portoviejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.6 | 0.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 0/67/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.3 | 1.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 6.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · El Nacional 0–1–5 LDU Portoviejo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 0-1 HT 0-1 | LDU Portoviejo |
| 28/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | LDU Portoviejo | 2-1 HT 1-0 | El Nacional |
| 01/09/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 1-1 HT 0-0 | LDU Portoviejo |
| 14/07/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | LDU Portoviejo | 2-0 | El Nacional |
| 03/06/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 1-2 HT 1-0 | LDU Portoviejo |
| 31/03/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | LDU Portoviejo | 3-0 HT 1-0 | El Nacional |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Vargas Torres | 23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 16 | 28 |
| 2 | LDU Portoviejo | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | Cumbaya | 23 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 27 |
| 4 | Gualaceo SC | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 16 | 26 |
| 5 | El Nacional | 23 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 35 | 9 |
| 6 | 22 de Julio | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 34 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | El Nacional | LDU Portoviejo |
|---|---|---|
| Independiente Juniors | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 0-1 L | 2-4 L |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| 22 de Julio | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Vinotinto Ecuador | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Cumbaya | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Atletico FC Guayaquil | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| CD Vargas Torres | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 2 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: LDU Portoviejo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
El Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/08 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/08 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 31/07 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 24/07 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 15/07 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 08/07 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/07 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 11/06 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
LDU Portoviejo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 21/08 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/08 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 08/08 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 30/07 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 17/07 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 09/07 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 11 | L |
| 04/07 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 10/06 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-3 | 2-4 | 9 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an LDU Portoviejo win (37%). Probabilities: El Nacional 31%, draw 32%, LDU Portoviejo 37%.
How many goals are expected in El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo?
The model expects 1.84 goals (El Nacional 0.87 · LDU Portoviejo 0.97), with a 59% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.