Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 26/08, 20:00

Prediction: Union Saint Gilloise II vs Union Rochefortoise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Union Saint Gilloise II1.51

Union Rochefortoise1.89

1X2

30% 24% 46%

Union Saint Gilloise II Draw Union Rochefortoise

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Saint Gilloise II 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWDWW

Union Rochefortoise 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Union Saint Gilloise II 2–3 Union Rochefortoise (5 last)

Union Saint Gilloise II4-0Union Rochefortoise
Union Rochefortoise3-2Union Saint Gilloise II
Union Saint Gilloise II0-3Union Rochefortoise
Union Rochefortoise1-3Union Saint Gilloise II
Union Rochefortoise2-1Union Saint Gilloise II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Saint Gilloise II 1565 · Union Rochefortoise 1439

	Union Saint Gilloise II	Draw	Union Rochefortoise
Our model	30%	24%	46%
Market	30%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Saint Gilloise II (rating 1565 vs 1439).
H2H favours Union Rochefortoise: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Saint Gilloise II	Union Rochefortoise
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.7	1.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	1.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.60

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.25 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.89
2	2.80 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +1’	2.05	3.60	2.80
20:42 +7’	2.45▲	3.60	2.30▼
22:25 +5’	3.00▲	3.60	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:05	2.42	3.50	2.55
20:38 +11’	2.67▲	3.70▲	2.23▼
22:23 +7’	2.88▲	3.74▲	2.10▼
23:15 +3’	3.32▲	3.90▲	1.87▼
00:03 +1’	3.25▼	3.89▼	1.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Saint Gilloise II 2–0–3 Union Rochefortoise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Saint Gilloise II	4-0 HT 2-0	Union Rochefortoise
13/09/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	3-2 HT 2-0	Union Saint Gilloise II
07/12/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Saint Gilloise II	0-3 HT 0-3	Union Rochefortoise
01/09/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	1-3 HT 0-2	Union Saint Gilloise II
27/04/24 Belgium Second Amateur Division ACFF	Union Rochefortoise	2-1 HT 1-1	Union Saint Gilloise II

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Flenu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ROC Charleroi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RAEC Mons	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RCS Onhaye	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RFC Meux	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sporting Charleroi U23	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tubize	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RSC Habay	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RWD Molenbeek	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Standard Liege II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Rochefortoise	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Saint Gilloise II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Saint Gilloise II

WDWWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	RRC Stockay-Warfusee Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/05	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
25/04	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
19/04	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
11/04	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
04/04	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	5-0	6	2	W
29/03	RRC Stockay-Warfusee Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	3-1	2	5	W
21/03	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	7	5	W
15/03	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
07/03	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	5	3	W

Union Rochefortoise

LDLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-3	2	5	L
03/05	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-3	3-5	2	2	L
25/04	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-1	4	5	W
18/04	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
11/04	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
28/03	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
21/03	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/03	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	10	7	L
07/03	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
28/02	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Saint Gilloise II vs Union Rochefortoise?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Rochefortoise win (46%). Probabilities: Union Saint Gilloise II 30%, draw 24%, Union Rochefortoise 46%.

How many goals are expected in Union Saint Gilloise II vs Union Rochefortoise?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Union Saint Gilloise II 1.51 · Union Rochefortoise 1.89), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Saint Gilloise II vs Union Rochefortoise?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.