Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 05/09, 20:00

Prediction: Tubize vs Union Rochefortoise

Team pages: Tubize · Union Rochefortoise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Tubize1.91

Union Rochefortoise1.34

1X2

50% 25% 26%

Tubize Draw Union Rochefortoise

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Tubize 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDDWWW

Union Rochefortoise 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Tubize 5–1–0 Union Rochefortoise (6 last)

Tubize3-2Union Rochefortoise
Union Rochefortoise1-1Tubize
Union Rochefortoise1-5Tubize
Tubize1-0Union Rochefortoise
Union Rochefortoise0-1Tubize
Tubize2-1Union Rochefortoise

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tubize 1548 · Union Rochefortoise 1472

	Tubize	Draw	Union Rochefortoise
Our model	50%	24%	26%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tubize (rating 1548 vs 1472).
H2H favours Tubize: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tubize	Union Rochefortoise
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	1.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.93 ★
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.65
2	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:38 +16’	1.80	3.75	3.40
09:45 +12’	1.80	3.60▼	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +4’	1.76	3.61	4.03
03:28	1.76	3.60▼	4.03
09:56 +1’	1.93▲	3.65▲	3.31▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tubize 5–1–0 Union Rochefortoise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tubize	3-2 HT 1-1	Union Rochefortoise
07/03/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	1-1 HT 0-1	Tubize
22/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	1-5 HT 0-1	Tubize
10/09/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tubize	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Rochefortoise
05/04/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	0-1 HT 0-1	Tubize
01/03/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tubize	2-1 HT 0-0	Union Rochefortoise

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Rochefortoise	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	RWD Molenbeek	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Tubize	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
4	RFC Meux	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	ROC Charleroi	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
6	Sporting Charleroi U23	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
7	RCS Onhaye	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
8	RAEC Mons	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
9	Standard Liege II	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
10	RSC Habay	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
11	Union Saint Gilloise II	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
12	FC Flenu	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tubize	Union Rochefortoise
RFC Meux	2-2 D	0-3 L
RAEC Mons	0-0 D	1-3 L
RSC Habay	2-0 W	4-2 W
Excelsior Virton	2-1 W	3-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tubize (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tubize

DLLWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
26/08	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
10/05	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	3-2	10	5	W
03/05	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/04	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/04	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
11/04	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
29/03	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	10	7	L
21/03	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
14/03	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	2-2	4	5	D

Union Rochefortoise

LLLLLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	4-2	4	5	W
26/08	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-0	4	8	W
10/05	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-3	2	5	L
03/05	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-3	3-5	2	2	L
25/04	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-1	4	5	W
18/04	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
11/04	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
28/03	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
21/03	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/03	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	10	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tubize vs Union Rochefortoise?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tubize win (50%). Probabilities: Tubize 50%, draw 25%, Union Rochefortoise 26%.

How many goals are expected in Tubize vs Union Rochefortoise?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Tubize 1.91 · Union Rochefortoise 1.34), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tubize vs Union Rochefortoise?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.