Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 05/09, 19:30

Prediction: Union Saint Gilloise II vs RSC Habay

Team pages: Union Saint Gilloise II · RSC Habay

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Union Saint Gilloise II1.74

RSC Habay1.35

1X2

46% 25% 29%

Union Saint Gilloise II Draw RSC Habay

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Saint Gilloise II 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWWLL

RSC Habay 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Union Saint Gilloise II 0–2 RSC Habay (2 last)

RSC Habay3-2Union Saint Gilloise II
Union Saint Gilloise II1-4RSC Habay

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Saint Gilloise II 1503 · RSC Habay 1447

	Union Saint Gilloise II	Draw	RSC Habay
Our model	46%	26%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Saint Gilloise II (rating 1503 vs 1447).
H2H favours RSC Habay: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Saint Gilloise II	RSC Habay
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.95▼	Pinn 1.99
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.80 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.32 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:48 +4’	2.10	3.50	2.80
00:51 +5’	1.95▼	3.60▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:52	1.99	3.46	3.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Saint Gilloise II 0–0–2 RSC Habay

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	RSC Habay	3-2 HT 1-2	Union Saint Gilloise II
06/09/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Saint Gilloise II	1-4 HT 0-1	RSC Habay

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Rochefortoise	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	RWD Molenbeek	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Tubize	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
4	RFC Meux	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	ROC Charleroi	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
6	Sporting Charleroi U23	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
7	RCS Onhaye	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
8	RAEC Mons	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
9	Standard Liege II	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
10	RSC Habay	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
11	Union Saint Gilloise II	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
12	FC Flenu	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Saint Gilloise II	RSC Habay
RFC Meux	1-2 L	1-2 L
Union Rochefortoise	0-2 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Saint Gilloise II

WWWLWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	1-2	9	4	L
26/08	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-2	3	8	L
10/05	RRC Stockay-Warfusee Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/05	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
25/04	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
19/04	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
11/04	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
04/04	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	5-0	6	2	W
29/03	RRC Stockay-Warfusee Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	3-1	2	5	W
21/03	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	7	5	W

RSC Habay

WDWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	2-4	4	5	L
26/08	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
10/05	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
03/05	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
25/04	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	1-4	2	5	L
18/04	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-2	3	8	L
12/04	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
29/03	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
21/03	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
15/03	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	7	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Saint Gilloise II vs RSC Habay?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Saint Gilloise II win (46%). Probabilities: Union Saint Gilloise II 46%, draw 25%, RSC Habay 29%.

How many goals are expected in Union Saint Gilloise II vs RSC Habay?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Union Saint Gilloise II 1.74 · RSC Habay 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Saint Gilloise II vs RSC Habay?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.