Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 30/08, 15:00

Prediction: Tienen vs Dessel Sport

Team pages: Dessel Sport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Tienen1.54

Dessel Sport1.39

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Tienen Draw Dessel Sport

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tienen 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWWLLD

Dessel Sport 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWWWDL

Head-to-head

Tienen 1–1–4 Dessel Sport (6 last)

Tienen1-3Dessel Sport
Dessel Sport1-1Tienen
Dessel Sport2-1Tienen
Tienen2-1Dessel Sport
Tienen0-4Dessel Sport
Dessel Sport2-1Tienen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tienen 1471 · Dessel Sport 1518

	Tienen	Draw	Dessel Sport
Our model	40%	27%	33%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dessel Sport (rating 1471 vs 1518).
H2H favours Dessel Sport: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tienen	Dessel Sport
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	1.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.35 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.79

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:32 +3’	2.20	3.60	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:40 +2’	2.41	3.24	2.72
16:00 +26’	2.35▼	3.25▲	2.79▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tienen 1–1–4 Dessel Sport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tienen	1-3 HT 0-1	Dessel Sport
20/09/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Dessel Sport	1-1 HT 0-0	Tienen
18/01/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Dessel Sport	2-1 HT 1-1	Tienen
11/09/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tienen	2-1 HT 1-0	Dessel Sport
11/05/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tienen	0-4 HT 0-0	Dessel Sport
28/10/23 Belgium First Amateur Division	Dessel Sport	2-1 HT 0-0	Tienen

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Rochefortoise	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	RWD Molenbeek	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Tubize	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	RAEC Mons	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
4	RFC Meux	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
6	FC Flenu	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	ROC Charleroi	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	RCS Onhaye	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Standard Liege II	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	RSC Habay	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
11	Sporting Charleroi U23	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
12	Union Saint Gilloise II	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tienen	Dessel Sport
Royal Knokke	0-2 L	4-3 W
Belisia Bilzen SV	2-0 W	0-3 L
Diegem Sport	5-1 W	1-1 D
KVV Thes Sport	0-0 D	2-3 L
KVC Houtvenne	1-3 L	3-2 W
Sporting Hasselt	0-3 L	0-1 L
OH Leuven II	2-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tienen (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tienen

LLLWDWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
19/04	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
12/04	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	5	1	L
29/03	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
22/03	Diegem Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	5-1	3	2	W
13/03	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
08/03	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
28/02	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
21/02	Sporting Hasselt Belgium First Amateur Division	0-3	0-3	5	3	L
08/02	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	2-3	3	4	L

Dessel Sport

DWLLLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Sporting Hasselt Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
18/04	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	2-2	5	2	D
12/04	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	4	1	W
28/03	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	3-1	2	3	W
21/03	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-3	4-3	6	3	W
14/03	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	7	3	L
07/03	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
01/03	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
21/02	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
14/02	Diegem Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tienen vs Dessel Sport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tienen win (40%). Probabilities: Tienen 40%, draw 26%, Dessel Sport 34%.

How many goals are expected in Tienen vs Dessel Sport?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Tienen 1.54 · Dessel Sport 1.39), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tienen vs Dessel Sport?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.