Football · Uganda Premier League · 14/10, 15:00

Prediction: Uganda Police FC vs SC Villa

Team pages: Uganda Police FC · SC Villa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.94Total

Uganda Police FC0.77

SC Villa1.17

1X2

24% 31% 45%

Uganda Police FC Draw SC Villa

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Uganda Police FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDDWLDWL

SC Villa 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWWDWWWD

Head-to-head

Uganda Police FC 1–2–3 SC Villa (6 last)

Uganda Police FC1-0SC Villa
SC Villa2-1Uganda Police FC
Uganda Police FC1-3SC Villa
SC Villa1-1Uganda Police FC
Uganda Police FC0-0SC Villa
SC Villa1-0Uganda Police FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Uganda Police FC 1477 · SC Villa 1569

	Uganda Police FC	Draw	SC Villa
Our model	23%	33%	44%
Market	25%	29%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 1.94 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Villa (rating 1477 vs 1569).
H2H favours SC Villa: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Uganda Police FC	SC Villa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.10

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.01 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +10’	3.60	3.10	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +50’	3.46	2.96	2.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Uganda Police FC 1–2–3 SC Villa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 Uganda Premier League	Uganda Police FC	1-0 HT 1-0	SC Villa
24/10/25 Uganda Premier League	SC Villa	2-1 HT 0-1	Uganda Police FC
11/05/25 Uganda Premier League	Uganda Police FC	1-3 HT 0-2	SC Villa
13/12/24 Uganda Premier League	SC Villa	1-1 HT 1-0	Uganda Police FC
02/05/22 Uganda Premier League	Uganda Police FC	0-0 HT 0-0	SC Villa
29/10/21 Uganda Premier League	SC Villa	1-0 HT 0-0	Uganda Police FC

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BUL FC	5	4	1	0	11	3	13
2	NEC FC Bugolobi	5	3	2	0	9	2	11
3	SC Villa	5	3	2	0	8	2	11
4	Entebbe UPPC	5	3	1	1	6	2	10
5	KCCA	6	3	1	2	4	4	10
6	Blacks Power	6	3	0	3	6	9	9
7	Kitara FC	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
8	Maroons	6	2	1	3	9	7	7
9	Uganda Police FC	5	2	1	2	3	4	7
10	Vipers SC	4	2	1	1	8	2	7
11	Lugazi FC	6	2	1	3	4	9	7
12	UPDF FC	4	1	2	1	2	2	5
13	Express FC	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
14	Mbarara City	5	1	2	2	2	3	5
15	URA	4	1	0	3	3	7	3
16	Ntugasaze FC	6	1	0	5	3	13	3
17	Kataka FC	5	0	2	3	3	8	2
18	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	4	0	1	3	1	6	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Uganda Police FC	SC Villa
UPDF FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Mbarara City	1-0 W	3-1 W
Kitara FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SC Villa (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Uganda Police FC

WLDDDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
16/09	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/09	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
02/09	Blacks Power Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
29/08	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
23/05	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
19/05	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
12/05	Vipers SC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
06/05	FC Calvary Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/04	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

SC Villa

LDWWWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/09	Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
09/09	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
04/09	URA Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
29/08	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
23/05	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	2-0	2-1	6	0	W
20/05	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	3-0	4-1	5	6	W
13/05	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	0-0	3-1	9	6	W
08/05	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
30/04	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	0-2	0-2	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Uganda Police FC vs SC Villa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SC Villa win (45%). Probabilities: Uganda Police FC 24%, draw 31%, SC Villa 45%.

How many goals are expected in Uganda Police FC vs SC Villa?

The model expects 1.94 goals (Uganda Police FC 0.77 · SC Villa 1.17), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Uganda Police FC vs SC Villa?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.