Prediction: KCCA vs UPDF FC
- UPDF FC1-2KCCA
- KCCA4-0UPDF FC
- UPDF FC1-2KCCA
- KCCA0-0UPDF FC
- KCCA1-0UPDF FC
- UPDF FC1-2KCCA
| KCCA | Draw | UPDF FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 26% | 13% |
| Market | 62% | 24% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KCCA (rating 1573 vs 1461).
- H2H favours KCCA: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KCCA | UPDF FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.1 | 1.2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KCCA 5–1–0 UPDF FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | KCCA |
| 27/01/26 Uganda Premier League | KCCA | 4-0 HT 2-0 | UPDF FC |
| 13/03/25 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | KCCA |
| 19/10/24 Uganda Premier League | KCCA | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UPDF FC |
| 07/05/24 Uganda Premier League | KCCA | 1-0 HT 1-0 | UPDF FC |
| 28/12/23 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | KCCA |
Standings · Uganda Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | NEC FC Bugolobi | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vipers SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Blacks Power | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
| 9 | Kitara FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | UPDF FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 11 | Uganda Police FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 7 |
| 12 | Lugazi FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 13 | Mbarara City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Express FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | KCCA | UPDF FC |
|---|---|---|
| Kataka FC | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Express FC | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Maroons | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: KCCA (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KCCA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/10 | URA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/09 | Kataka FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 08/09 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 03/09 | Express FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/05 | URA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | UPDF FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 07/05 | Maroons Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
UPDF FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 15/10 | Express FC Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/09 | Maroons Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 10/09 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 01/09 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Kataka FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 19/05 | FC Calvary Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 13/05 | KCCA Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 07/05 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in KCCA vs UPDF FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a KCCA win (62%). Probabilities: KCCA 62%, draw 25%, UPDF FC 13%.
How many goals are expected in KCCA vs UPDF FC?
The model expects 2.24 goals (KCCA 1.63 · UPDF FC 0.61), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in KCCA vs UPDF FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.