Football · Uganda Premier League · 23/10, 19:00

Prediction: Vipers SC vs Uganda Police FC

Team pages: Vipers SC · Uganda Police FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Vipers SC2.26

Uganda Police FC0.54

1X2

76% 16% 7%

Vipers SC Draw Uganda Police FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Vipers SC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWLWWDW

Uganda Police FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDDWLDWLL

Head-to-head

Vipers SC 5–1–0 Uganda Police FC (6 last)

Uganda Police FC0-0Vipers SC
Vipers SC4-1Uganda Police FC
Uganda Police FC0-1Vipers SC
Vipers SC2-1Uganda Police FC
Uganda Police FC0-1Vipers SC
Vipers SC5-0Uganda Police FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vipers SC 1582 · Uganda Police FC 1440

	Vipers SC	Draw	Uganda Police FC
Our model	76%	18%	6%
Market	77%	16%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vipers SC (rating 1582 vs 1440).
H2H favours Vipers SC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vipers SC	Uganda Police FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.1	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.17

X5.75

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.80

2 (+2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	6.50 → 5.75▼	Bet365 5.75
2	13.00 → 12.00▼	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +4’	1.17	6.50	13.00
15:56 +12’	1.17	5.75▼	12.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vipers SC 5–1–0 Uganda Police FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Uganda Premier League	Uganda Police FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Vipers SC
27/01/26 Uganda Premier League	Vipers SC	4-1 HT 3-0	Uganda Police FC
06/03/25 Uganda Premier League	Uganda Police FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Vipers SC
25/10/24 Uganda Premier League	Vipers SC	2-1 HT 1-1	Uganda Police FC
03/06/23 Uganda Cup	Uganda Police FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Vipers SC
21/05/22 Uganda Premier League	Vipers SC	5-0 HT 1-0	Uganda Police FC

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BUL FC	7	6	1	0	15	4	19
2	SC Villa	6	4	2	0	14	3	14
3	NEC FC Bugolobi	7	4	2	1	12	4	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	3	2	1	6	2	11
5	Vipers SC	5	3	1	1	13	2	10
6	Maroons	7	3	1	3	13	8	10
7	KCCA	6	3	1	2	4	4	10
8	Blacks Power	6	3	0	3	6	9	9
9	Kitara FC	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
10	UPDF FC	6	2	2	2	4	5	8
11	Lugazi FC	7	2	2	3	4	9	8
12	Uganda Police FC	6	2	1	3	4	10	7
13	Express FC	7	1	3	3	4	6	6
14	Mbarara City	5	1	2	2	2	3	5
15	URA	5	1	1	3	3	7	4
16	Ntugasaze FC	6	1	0	5	3	13	3
17	Kataka FC	7	0	2	5	4	17	2
18	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	5	0	1	4	1	8	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vipers SC	Uganda Police FC
Blacks Power	4-0 W	0-1 L
Entebbe UPPC	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vipers SC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vipers SC

DDDWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	5-0	5	5	W
11/10	Maroons Uganda Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	0	D
08/10	Blacks Power Uganda Premier League	3-0	4-0	1	3	W
19/09	Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	3-0	10	3	W
28/08	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	1	L
23/05	Express FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	1	W
19/05	Maroons Uganda Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
12/05	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
08/05	URA Uganda Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
29/04	KCCA Uganda Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	3	D

Uganda Police FC

LDDDWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-3	1-6	7	2	L
09/10	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
16/09	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/09	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
02/09	Blacks Power Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
29/08	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
23/05	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
19/05	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
12/05	Vipers SC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
06/05	FC Calvary Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vipers SC vs Uganda Police FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vipers SC win (76%). Probabilities: Vipers SC 76%, draw 16%, Uganda Police FC 7%.

How many goals are expected in Vipers SC vs Uganda Police FC?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Vipers SC 2.26 · Uganda Police FC 0.54), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vipers SC vs Uganda Police FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.