Football · Uganda Premier League · 22/10, 15:00
Prediction: SC Villa vs Mbarara City
Team pages: SC Villa · Mbarara City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.25Total
SC Villa2.57
Mbarara City0.67
1X2
SC Villa
Draw
Mbarara City
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
SC Villa
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Mbarara City
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SC Villa
5–1–0
Mbarara City
(6 last)
- Mbarara City1-3SC Villa
- SC Villa6-1Mbarara City
- Mbarara City0-2SC Villa
- SC Villa4-2Mbarara City
- SC Villa2-1Mbarara City
- Mbarara City0-0SC Villa
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SC Villa 1595 · Mbarara City 1483
| SC Villa | Draw | Mbarara City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 16% | 7% |
| Market | 78% | 14% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Villa (rating 1595 vs 1483).
- H2H favours SC Villa: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SC Villa | Mbarara City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 1.8 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Villa 5–1–0 Mbarara City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 Uganda Premier League | Mbarara City | 1-3 HT 0-0 | SC Villa |
| 28/01/26 Uganda Premier League | SC Villa | 6-1 HT 4-0 | Mbarara City |
| 16/04/25 Uganda Premier League | Mbarara City | 0-2 HT 0-0 | SC Villa |
| 16/09/24 Uganda Premier League | SC Villa | 4-2 HT 2-0 | Mbarara City |
| 30/03/24 Uganda Premier League | SC Villa | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Mbarara City |
| 25/11/23 Uganda Premier League | Mbarara City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | SC Villa |
Standings · Uganda Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | NEC FC Bugolobi | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vipers SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Blacks Power | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
| 9 | Kitara FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | UPDF FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 11 | Uganda Police FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 7 |
| 12 | Lugazi FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 13 | Mbarara City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Express FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SC Villa | Mbarara City |
|---|---|---|
| Uganda Police FC | 6-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Express FC | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| NEC FC Bugolobi | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: SC Villa (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SC Villa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 07/10 | Kataka FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/09 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/09 | Express FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 04/09 | URA Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Kitara FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | UPDF FC Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 20/05 | NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 08/05 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
Mbarara City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Blacks Power Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 07/10 | Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 16/09 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 11/09 | NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | KCCA Uganda Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 19/05 | Buhimba United Saints FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 13/05 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 06/05 | Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 28/04 | Express FC Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SC Villa vs Mbarara City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Villa win (78%). Probabilities: SC Villa 78%, draw 15%, Mbarara City 7%.
How many goals are expected in SC Villa vs Mbarara City?
The model expects 3.25 goals (SC Villa 2.57 · Mbarara City 0.67), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in SC Villa vs Mbarara City?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.