Football · Uganda Premier League · 15/10, 15:00
Prediction: Express FC vs UPDF FC
Team pages: Express FC · UPDF FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.81Total
Express FC1.19
UPDF FC0.63
1X2
Express FC
Draw
UPDF FC
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
1-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
Express FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
UPDF FC
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Express FC
4–2–0
UPDF FC
(6 last)
- UPDF FC0-1Express FC
- Express FC1-0UPDF FC
- Express FC2-2UPDF FC
- UPDF FC0-2Express FC
- Express FC3-1UPDF FC
- UPDF FC1-1Express FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Express FC 1506 · UPDF FC 1449
| Express FC | Draw | UPDF FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 33% | 18% |
| Market | 50% | 30% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.81 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Express FC (rating 1506 vs 1449).
- H2H favours Express FC: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Express FC | UPDF FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 2.9 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Express FC 4–2–0 UPDF FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/26 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Express FC |
| 26/09/25 Uganda Premier League | Express FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | UPDF FC |
| 24/04/25 Uganda Premier League | Express FC | 2-2 HT 0-2 | UPDF FC |
| 06/01/25 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Express FC |
| 27/02/24 Uganda Premier League | Express FC | 3-1 HT 3-0 | UPDF FC |
| 27/10/23 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Express FC |
Standings · Uganda Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | NEC FC Bugolobi | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | SC Villa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Blacks Power | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | Kitara FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Maroons | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Uganda Police FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Vipers SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Lugazi FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 12 | UPDF FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Express FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka FC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Express FC | UPDF FC |
|---|---|---|
| SC Villa | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| KCCA | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Express FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 17/09 | Kitara FC Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 09/09 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 03/09 | KCCA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Vipers SC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/05 | Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Kitara FC Uganda Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Buhimba United Saints FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 28/04 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
UPDF FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Maroons Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 10/09 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 01/09 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Kataka FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 19/05 | FC Calvary Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 13/05 | KCCA Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 07/05 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/04 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | URA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Express FC vs UPDF FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Express FC win (49%). Probabilities: Express FC 49%, draw 31%, UPDF FC 19%.
How many goals are expected in Express FC vs UPDF FC?
The model expects 1.81 goals (Express FC 1.19 · UPDF FC 0.63), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Express FC vs UPDF FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.