Football · Uganda Premier League · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: UPDF FC vs Kitara FC

Team pages: UPDF FC · Kitara FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

UPDF FC0.81

Kitara FC1.28

1X2

23% 31% 47%

UPDF FC Draw Kitara FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

UPDF FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLDWWLL

Kitara FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDDDWW

Head-to-head

UPDF FC 0–2–4 Kitara FC (6 last)

UPDF FC1-1Kitara FC
Kitara FC2-1UPDF FC
UPDF FC0-0Kitara FC
Kitara FC4-0UPDF FC
UPDF FC0-3Kitara FC
Kitara FC1-0UPDF FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UPDF FC 1454 · Kitara FC 1513

	UPDF FC	Draw	Kitara FC
Our model	22%	31%	46%
Market	23%	30%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kitara FC (rating 1454 vs 1513).
H2H favours Kitara FC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UPDF FC	Kitara FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.8	1.6 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.00

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +6’	3.90	3.00	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UPDF FC 0–2–4 Kitara FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Uganda Premier League	UPDF FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Kitara FC
07/01/26 Uganda Premier League	Kitara FC	2-1 HT 2-0	UPDF FC
13/02/25 Uganda Premier League	UPDF FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Kitara FC
22/11/24 Uganda Premier League	Kitara FC	4-0 HT 3-0	UPDF FC
03/02/24 Uganda Premier League	UPDF FC	0-3 HT 0-0	Kitara FC
22/09/23 Uganda Premier League	Kitara FC	1-0 HT 1-0	UPDF FC

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BUL FC	7	6	1	0	15	4	19
2	SC Villa	8	5	3	0	16	3	18
3	NEC FC Bugolobi	8	5	2	1	17	5	17
4	Entebbe UPPC	8	4	3	1	7	2	15
5	Uganda Police FC	9	4	2	3	9	12	14
6	KCCA	7	4	1	2	6	5	13
7	Blacks Power	8	4	1	3	9	11	13
8	Vipers SC	7	3	2	2	13	3	11
9	Maroons	8	3	2	3	13	8	11
10	Kitara FC	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
11	UPDF FC	7	2	2	3	4	6	8
12	Mbarara City	7	2	2	3	3	5	8
13	Lugazi FC	8	2	2	4	5	11	8
14	Express FC	8	1	4	3	6	8	7
15	URA	7	2	1	4	6	10	7
16	Kataka FC	9	0	3	6	7	21	3
17	Ntugasaze FC	7	1	0	6	4	18	3
18	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	7	0	1	6	2	12	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UPDF FC	Kitara FC
BUL FC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Express FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Uganda Police FC	0-0 D	2-2 D
Kataka FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
SC Villa	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Kitara FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UPDF FC

LDLDLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	URA Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
18/10	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
15/10	Express FC Uganda Premier League	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
17/09	Maroons Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	1	W
10/09	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
01/09	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
29/08	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
23/05	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-2	1-2	2	0	L
19/05	FC Calvary Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
13/05	KCCA Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	5	L

Kitara FC

WWLLDDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
07/10	Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/09	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
23/05	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
19/05	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/05	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-3	2-3	5	4	L
09/05	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
30/04	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
25/04	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UPDF FC vs Kitara FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kitara FC win (47%). Probabilities: UPDF FC 23%, draw 31%, Kitara FC 47%.

How many goals are expected in UPDF FC vs Kitara FC?

The model expects 2.09 goals (UPDF FC 0.81 · Kitara FC 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in UPDF FC vs Kitara FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.