Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 23/08, 15:00

Prediction: Tacuary vs 3 de Noviembre

Team pages: Tacuary · 3 de Noviembre

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Tacuary1.65

3 de Noviembre1.23

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Tacuary Draw 3 de Noviembre

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tacuary 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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3 de Noviembre 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tacuary 0–1–0 3 de Noviembre (1 last)

3 de Noviembre2-2Tacuary

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tacuary 1515 · 3 de Noviembre 1425

	Tacuary	Draw	3 de Noviembre
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	46%	27%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tacuary (rating 1515 vs 1425).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tacuary	3 de Noviembre
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.8	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.6	5.1 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.13 ★
X	3.20 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	2.90 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:49 +6’	2.15	3.20	2.90
03:17 +3’	1.95▼	3.25▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +3’	2.13	2.79	3.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tacuary 0–1–0 3 de Noviembre

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	3 de Noviembre	2-2 HT 1-0	Tacuary

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	19	12	4	3	28	16	40
2	General Caballero JLM	20	12	4	4	41	24	40
3	Deportivo Santaní	19	11	3	5	29	16	36
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	19	10	5	4	30	19	35
5	Sol de America	20	6	12	2	25	17	30
6	Resistencia FC	20	7	8	5	22	22	29
7	Independiente FBC	20	6	9	5	28	26	27
8	Club Atlético Tembetary	20	7	5	8	27	29	26
9	Carapegua	19	7	4	8	22	31	25
10	Guairena FC	20	6	6	8	19	23	24
11	Deportivo Capiata	20	5	9	6	24	26	24
12	Fernando de la Mora	20	6	5	9	22	30	23
13	Paraguari AC	19	5	5	9	19	24	20
14	Tacuary	19	3	9	7	23	31	18
15	Encarnacion FC	19	3	3	13	15	27	12
16	3 de Noviembre	19	1	7	11	17	30	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tacuary	3 de Noviembre
General Caballero JLM	1-4 L	2-3 L
Guairena FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Paraguari AC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Club Atlético Tembetary	4-2 W	3-0 W
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	2-3 L	1-2 L
Carapegua	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tacuary (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tacuary

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-4	2	4	L
10/08	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
01/08	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
25/07	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
20/07	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
13/07	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-1	2-2	3	2	D
03/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
27/06	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
06/06	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-3	2	7	L
31/05	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-1	2-2	2	5	D

3 de Noviembre

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-0	3-0	3	6	W
09/08	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
03/08	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
28/07	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
19/07	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
11/07	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
03/07	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-2	5	9	D
28/06	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
09/06	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-3	1	9	L
01/06	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tacuary vs 3 de Noviembre?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tacuary win (46%). Probabilities: Tacuary 46%, draw 27%, 3 de Noviembre 27%.

How many goals are expected in Tacuary vs 3 de Noviembre?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Tacuary 1.65 · 3 de Noviembre 1.23), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tacuary vs 3 de Noviembre?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.