Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 29/08, 15:00

Prediction: Fernando de la Mora vs Tacuary

Team pages: Fernando de la Mora · Tacuary

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Fernando de la Mora1.6

Tacuary1.41

1X2

41% 27% 33%

Fernando de la Mora Draw Tacuary

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fernando de la Mora 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDWDDLWL

Tacuary 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDDDLWLL

Head-to-head

Fernando de la Mora 4–2 Tacuary (6 last)

Tacuary1-2Fernando de la Mora
Tacuary0-1Fernando de la Mora
Fernando de la Mora2-1Tacuary
Fernando de la Mora1-2Tacuary
Fernando de la Mora2-3Tacuary
Tacuary0-2Fernando de la Mora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fernando de la Mora 1546 · Tacuary 1486

	Fernando de la Mora	Draw	Tacuary
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fernando de la Mora (rating 1546 vs 1486).
H2H favours Fernando de la Mora: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fernando de la Mora	Tacuary
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	11/78/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	1.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.30

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:58 +8’	2.20	3.30	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fernando de la Mora 4–0–2 Tacuary

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Tacuary	1-2 HT 1-0	Fernando de la Mora
10/08/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Tacuary	0-1 HT 0-1	Fernando de la Mora
04/05/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Fernando de la Mora	2-1 HT 0-1	Tacuary
12/07/23 Paraguay Cup	Fernando de la Mora	1-2 HT 0-2	Tacuary
04/09/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Fernando de la Mora	2-3 HT 1-2	Tacuary
30/05/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Tacuary	0-2 HT 0-1	Fernando de la Mora

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	20	13	4	3	31	18	43
2	General Caballero JLM	20	12	4	4	41	24	40
3	Deportivo Santaní	20	12	3	5	32	18	39
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	20	10	5	5	32	22	35
5	Sol de America	20	6	12	2	25	17	30
6	Resistencia FC	20	7	8	5	22	22	29
7	Independiente FBC	20	6	9	5	28	26	27
8	Club Atlético Tembetary	20	7	5	8	27	29	26
9	Carapegua	20	7	4	9	23	34	25
10	Guairena FC	20	6	6	8	19	23	24
11	Deportivo Capiata	20	5	9	6	24	26	24
12	Fernando de la Mora	20	6	5	9	22	30	23
13	Paraguari AC	20	5	5	10	21	27	20
14	Tacuary	20	3	9	8	23	32	18
15	Encarnacion FC	20	4	3	13	18	28	15
16	3 de Noviembre	20	2	7	11	18	30	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fernando de la Mora	Tacuary
Club Atlético Tembetary	1-2 L	4-2 W
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	2-1 W	2-3 L
Paraguari AC	2-2 D	1-0 W
3 de Noviembre	2-2 D	0-1 L
General Caballero JLM	3-2 W	1-4 L
Guairena FC	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fernando de la Mora

LWDDWDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
15/08	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
09/08	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
01/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
26/07	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
21/07	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
10/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
03/07	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-2	5	9	D
27/06	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-2	1	8	W
06/06	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-3	4	8	L

Tacuary

LWWDDDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
18/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-4	2	4	L
10/08	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
01/08	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
25/07	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
20/07	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
13/07	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-1	2-2	3	2	D
03/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/06	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	4-2	4	1	W
06/06	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-3	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fernando de la Mora vs Tacuary?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fernando de la Mora win (41%). Probabilities: Fernando de la Mora 41%, draw 27%, Tacuary 33%.

How many goals are expected in Fernando de la Mora vs Tacuary?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Fernando de la Mora 1.6 · Tacuary 1.41), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fernando de la Mora vs Tacuary?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.