Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 04/09, 21:00

Prediction: Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne

Team pages: Shamrock Rovers · Shelbourne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Shamrock Rovers1.83

Shelbourne1.17

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Shamrock Rovers Draw Shelbourne

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Shamrock Rovers 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWDWD

Shelbourne 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDLDWLLD

Head-to-head

Shamrock Rovers 2–2–2 Shelbourne (6 last)

Shelbourne2-1Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers3-2Shelbourne
Shelbourne2-2Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers0-1Shelbourne
Shelbourne1-2Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers2-2Shelbourne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shamrock Rovers 1541 · Shelbourne 1479

	Shamrock Rovers	Draw	Shelbourne
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	51%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shamrock Rovers (rating 1541 vs 1479).
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shamrock Rovers	Shelbourne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.1	1.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +4’	1.80	3.50	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shamrock Rovers 2–2–2 Shelbourne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shelbourne	2-1 HT 1-0	Shamrock Rovers
06/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shamrock Rovers	3-2 HT 2-1	Shelbourne
09/03/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shelbourne	2-2 HT 2-2	Shamrock Rovers
10/10/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shamrock Rovers	0-1 HT 0-1	Shelbourne
13/06/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shelbourne	1-2 HT 1-1	Shamrock Rovers
25/04/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shamrock Rovers	2-2 HT 1-0	Shelbourne

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	28	16	7	5	46	27	55
2	St Patricks	29	14	8	7	45	25	50
3	Bohemians Dublin	29	14	8	7	50	34	50
4	Dundalk	29	10	10	9	46	45	40
5	Shelbourne	27	8	11	8	37	39	35
6	Derry City	29	7	13	9	41	40	34
7	Galway United	28	8	10	10	36	42	34
8	Waterford FC	29	7	11	11	39	48	32
9	Drogheda United	29	6	10	13	33	48	28
10	Sligo Rovers	29	5	8	16	23	48	23

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shamrock Rovers	Shelbourne
Derry City	3-3 D	0-0 D
Dundalk	3-2 W	2-1 W
Drogheda United	0-0 D	2-2 D
Sligo Rovers	2-1 W	2-2 D
Galway United	3-1 W	1-1 D
Waterford FC	2-0 W	0-1 L
St Patricks	1-0 W	1-2 L
Bohemians Dublin	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Shamrock Rovers (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shamrock Rovers

WWLWDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-3	3-3	5	6	D
07/08	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-2	3-2	1	8	W
31/07	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
03/07	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
26/06	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	3-1	2	1	W
22/06	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
19/06	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
12/06	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
29/05	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
25/05	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-1	3	5	W

Shelbourne

DDWDLDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
09/08	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
02/08	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/07	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-1	2-1	1	9	W
27/06	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-2	14	2	D
22/06	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-2	0-3	4	7	L
19/06	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-2	2-2	1	4	D
12/06	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
29/05	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
25/05	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shamrock Rovers win (51%). Probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 51%, draw 26%, Shelbourne 23%.

How many goals are expected in Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?

The model expects 3 goals (Shamrock Rovers 1.83 · Shelbourne 1.17), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.