Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 14/09, 20:45
Prediction: Waterford FC vs Derry City
Team pages: Waterford FC · Derry City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.05Total
Waterford FC1.49
Derry City1.57
1X2
Waterford FC
Draw
Derry City
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Waterford FC
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Derry City
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Waterford FC
2–1–3
Derry City
(6 last)
- Derry City2-4Waterford FC
- Waterford FC2-2Derry City
- Derry City4-2Waterford FC
- Waterford FC1-2Derry City
- Derry City7-2Waterford FC
- Waterford FC2-1Derry City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Waterford FC 1563 · Derry City 1542
| Waterford FC | Draw | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Derry City: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Waterford FC | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.2 | 2.2 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Waterford FC 2–1–3 Derry City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 2-4 HT 0-1 | Waterford FC |
| 15/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Waterford FC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Derry City |
| 27/02/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 4-2 HT 0-1 | Waterford FC |
| 17/10/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Waterford FC | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Derry City |
| 04/07/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 7-2 HT 4-0 | Waterford FC |
| 25/04/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Waterford FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Derry City |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 29 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patricks | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Bohemians Dublin | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53 | 36 | 53 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 46 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 37 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 37 | 40 | 36 |
| 7 | Galway United | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 38 | 45 | 34 |
| 8 | Waterford FC | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 40 | 49 | 33 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 48 | 31 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 50 | 23 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Waterford FC | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| St Patricks | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Sligo Rovers | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Bohemians Dublin | 3-1 W | 3-5 L |
| Shelbourne | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Galway United | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Shamrock Rovers | 0-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Waterford FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Waterford FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 28/08 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 21/08 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 10/07 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 03/07 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Derry City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
3-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 21/08 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/08 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 03/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/06 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Waterford FC vs Derry City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Derry City win (39%). Probabilities: Waterford FC 35%, draw 27%, Derry City 39%.
How many goals are expected in Waterford FC vs Derry City?
The model expects 3.05 goals (Waterford FC 1.49 · Derry City 1.57), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Waterford FC vs Derry City?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.