Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 14/09, 20:45
Prediction: Dundalk vs St Patricks
Team pages: Dundalk · St Patricks
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Dundalk1.26
St Patricks1.57
1X2
Dundalk
Draw
St Patricks
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Dundalk
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
St Patricks
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dundalk
2–1–3
St Patricks
(6 last)
- St Patricks1-1Dundalk
- Dundalk0-1St Patricks
- Dundalk2-0St Patricks
- St Patricks4-0Dundalk
- Dundalk1-2St Patricks
- St Patricks2-3Dundalk
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dundalk 1479 · St Patricks 1538
| Dundalk | Draw | St Patricks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Patricks (rating 1479 vs 1538).
- H2H favours St Patricks: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dundalk | St Patricks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.9 | 2.8 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundalk 2–1–3 St Patricks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | St Patricks | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Dundalk |
| 26/05/26 Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup | Dundalk | 0-1 HT 0-1 | St Patricks |
| 06/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Dundalk | 2-0 HT 2-0 | St Patricks |
| 27/02/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | St Patricks | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Dundalk |
| 05/09/24 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Dundalk | 1-2 HT 1-0 | St Patricks |
| 03/06/24 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | St Patricks | 2-3 HT 2-3 | Dundalk |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 29 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patricks | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Bohemians Dublin | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53 | 36 | 53 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 46 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 37 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 37 | 40 | 36 |
| 7 | Galway United | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 38 | 45 | 34 |
| 8 | Waterford FC | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 40 | 49 | 33 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 48 | 31 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 50 | 23 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Dundalk | St Patricks |
|---|---|---|
| Waterford FC | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Drogheda United | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Galway United | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Shamrock Rovers | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Sligo Rovers | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Shelbourne | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Bohemians Dublin | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: St Patricks (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dundalk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 28/08 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 31/07 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 24/07 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 10/07 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 26/06 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
St Patricks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 21/08 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 24/07 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 10/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/07 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
3-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dundalk vs St Patricks?
According to our model, the most likely result is an St Patricks win (44%). Probabilities: Dundalk 29%, draw 27%, St Patricks 44%.
How many goals are expected in Dundalk vs St Patricks?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Dundalk 1.26 · St Patricks 1.57), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patricks?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.