Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 18/09, 21:00

Prediction: Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford FC

Team pages: Shamrock Rovers · Waterford FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Shamrock Rovers1.95

Waterford FC0.77

1X2

65% 22% 14%

Shamrock Rovers Draw Waterford FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Shamrock Rovers 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDWDDL

Waterford FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWWDWD

Head-to-head

Shamrock Rovers 5–1–0 Waterford FC (6 last)

Waterford FC0-2Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers1-0Waterford FC
Waterford FC1-1Shamrock Rovers
Waterford FC1-2Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers1-0Waterford FC
Waterford FC1-3Shamrock Rovers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shamrock Rovers 1518 · Waterford FC 1551

	Shamrock Rovers	Draw	Waterford FC
Our model	64%	23%	13%
Market	65%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Shamrock Rovers: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shamrock Rovers	Waterford FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.5	3.5 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +1’	1.40	4.33	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shamrock Rovers 5–1–0 Waterford FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/06/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Waterford FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Shamrock Rovers
01/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shamrock Rovers	1-0 HT 1-0	Waterford FC
03/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Waterford FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Shamrock Rovers
22/09/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Waterford FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Shamrock Rovers
27/06/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shamrock Rovers	1-0 HT 0-0	Waterford FC
16/05/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Waterford FC	1-3 HT 1-1	Shamrock Rovers

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	30	16	8	6	46	29	56
2	St Patricks	30	15	8	7	47	25	53
3	Bohemians Dublin	30	15	8	7	53	36	53
4	Dundalk	30	10	11	9	47	46	41
5	Derry City	30	8	13	9	42	40	37
6	Shelbourne	29	8	12	9	37	40	36
7	Galway United	29	8	10	11	38	45	34
8	Waterford FC	30	7	12	11	40	49	33
9	Drogheda United	30	7	10	13	35	48	31
10	Sligo Rovers	30	5	8	17	23	50	23

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shamrock Rovers	Waterford FC
St Patricks	0-2 L	2-0 W
Shelbourne	0-0 D	1-0 W
Derry City	3-3 D	4-2 W
Dundalk	3-2 W	1-1 D
Sligo Rovers	2-1 W	0-0 D
Galway United	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shamrock Rovers

LWDWWDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
04/09	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
30/08	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-3	3-3	5	6	D
07/08	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-2	3-2	1	8	W
31/07	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
03/07	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
26/06	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	3-1	2	1	W
22/06	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
19/06	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
12/06	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-2	5	2	L

Waterford FC

LWWDDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
28/08	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	2-0	10	0	W
21/08	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
09/08	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-0	3-1	3	3	W
02/08	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
25/07	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
10/07	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
03/07	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	4-2	7	3	W
26/06	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-2	3-2	3	3	W
19/06	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	0-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shamrock Rovers win (65%). Probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 65%, draw 22%, Waterford FC 14%.

How many goals are expected in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford FC?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Shamrock Rovers 1.95 · Waterford FC 0.77), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.