Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 18/09, 20:45

Prediction: Derry City vs Galway United

Team pages: Derry City · Galway United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Derry City2.01

Galway United1.11

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Derry City Draw Galway United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Derry City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDWLDW

Galway United 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWDDDWDL

Head-to-head

Derry City 2–2–2 Galway United (6 last)

Galway United2-1Derry City
Derry City1-1Galway United
Galway United2-1Derry City
Galway United1-2Derry City
Derry City1-1Galway United
Galway United2-3Derry City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derry City 1533 · Galway United 1531

	Derry City	Draw	Galway United
Our model	57%	23%	19%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derry City	Galway United
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.4	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.80

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +2’	1.60	3.80	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City 2–2–2 Galway United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/06/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Galway United	2-1 HT 1-0	Derry City
04/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	1-1 HT 0-1	Galway United
03/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Galway United	2-1 HT 1-0	Derry City
22/08/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Galway United	1-2 HT 1-1	Derry City
13/06/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	1-1 HT 1-1	Galway United
18/04/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Galway United	2-3 HT 1-1	Derry City

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	30	16	8	6	46	29	56
2	St Patricks	30	15	8	7	47	25	53
3	Bohemians Dublin	30	15	8	7	53	36	53
4	Dundalk	30	10	11	9	47	46	41
5	Derry City	30	8	13	9	42	40	37
6	Shelbourne	29	8	12	9	37	40	36
7	Galway United	29	8	10	11	38	45	34
8	Waterford FC	30	7	12	11	40	49	33
9	Drogheda United	30	7	10	13	35	48	31
10	Sligo Rovers	30	5	8	17	23	50	23

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derry City	Galway United
Shelbourne	1-0 W	1-1 D
Shamrock Rovers	3-3 D	1-3 L
Bohemians Dublin	3-5 L	2-3 L
Sligo Rovers	2-0 W	3-2 W
St Patricks	1-1 D	0-3 L
Waterford FC	2-4 L	0-0 D
Drogheda United	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Derry City (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derry City

WLDWLDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
30/08	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-1	3-3	3	6	D
21/08	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	3-5	3	3	L
07/08	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	2-0	10	2	W
02/08	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
03/07	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-4	5	3	L
26/06	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
22/06	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
19/06	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
12/06	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	4-1	6	5	W

Galway United

WLLWDDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-3	1	5	L
28/08	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
21/08	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
07/08	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
02/08	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
25/07	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
11/07	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	3-2	6	4	W
03/07	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-3	0-3	3	3	L
26/06	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-2	1-3	5	1	L
19/06	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derry City vs Galway United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Derry City win (57%). Probabilities: Derry City 57%, draw 24%, Galway United 19%.

How many goals are expected in Derry City vs Galway United?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Derry City 2.01 · Galway United 1.11), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Derry City vs Galway United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.